FISH | Financial Independence Seeking Happiness: Investing

Fragilista - Part 1

Contender 0 Early Retirement, Finance, financial freedom, Inflation, Investing, Life 11:55

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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Our very fragile sink - we are chucking everything at the 
kitchen sink of 2017 to make it as successful and 
anti-fragile as possible</td></tr>
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Welcome to a New Year of new opportunity ladders and slippery snakes.  
 
This year I am kicking off with the basics on how to achieve Financial Independence with a link to my <a href="https://sites.google.com/site/lifeplanltd/home/TimeLine_Financial.xls?attredirects=0&d=1" target="_blank">updated Financial Independence Timeline planner</a> that allows you to create a basic budget, track spending and create a financial independence plan. 
 
I will cover a bit of media bias (plenty here;) in the wold of fake news and risk planning especially focus on becoming anti-fragile (Courtesy of Nassim Taleb) 
 
In part 2, that will be released later, I will 
 discuss our anti-fragiliska actions and what you can do. 
<h2>
Early Retirement does not have to be a dream - maths 101</h2>
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I have read a lot of articles from the FIRE community and mainstream media. Some are very good at highlighting how it is possible to save what can bee seen as a daunting wad of money. Some talk of extreme "sacrifices" made at a young age to do this. In reality it is sensible to choose somewhere in between. 
 
A happy financial independence is possible with a reasonable wad. It is possible to avoid extreme living arrangements to get there. We "retired" at age 37 and still managed to have a great time along the way. How? 
 
Simply - we worked (at education to get good jobs where we put in the required effort) and saved hard all our lives (50%+ of our after tax income) - <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Grit-Passion-Perseverance-Angela-Duckworth-x/dp/1785040189/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1484472770&sr=8-1&keywords=grit" target="_blank">See the book Grit</a>. Secondly live with a good standard of living but nothing extravagant which is the premise of the book "<a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Millionaire-Next-Door-Surprising-Americas/dp/1589795474/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1484472896&sr=8-1&keywords=The+Millionaire+Next+Door" target="_blank">The Millionaire Next Doo</a>r". 
 
A middle class lifestyle is a luxury and there really is no need to overstretch yourself with "luxury goods" trying to keep up with the "Joneses" or "Showing Off". A middle class lifestyle in this day and age means access to cheap world travel, indoor toilets and central heating. These are luxuries in their selves and were not available until recently. Obtaining financial independence just means understanding and applying the following maths: 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The MAGIC of COMPOUNDING and the RULE of 72. Divide 72 by the rate of return you obtain and this gives the time for the initial amount to double. If you have 50,000 saved and get a 10% return in 7 years you will have 100,000, 14 years 200,000, 21 years 400,000 etc. This is with no additional capital added! Sprinkle some in and this process speeds up dramatically.  
 
The secret is that at first you don't see the nest egg grow much - the power of 72 is hidden.  Add in a sprinkling of the ups and downs of the business cycle and it is easy to see this as a deterrent - it is not working....persistence is the key.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Secondly how much do you need to live off in FIRE 15,000 per year? This requires an investment pot of around 214,000 returning 7% a year........(too aggressive for me - but it is quite startling) 
 
15,000! This surprisingly goes a very long way when you house is paid for, you live in a country that has good health coverage (providing you pay your taxes) and you have low living costs by SMART living choices. </blockquote>
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BIG IDEA: Do not be part of the heard, save as much as is reasonable and make sure the money is put to WORK providing an INCOME (not a speculation or gamble).</blockquote>
To help you visualise how this all works I have updated my financial independence time line planner with new budget and spending tracking sheets (excel spreadsheet). 
 
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://sites.google.com/site/lifeplanltd/home/TimeLine_Financial.xls?attredirects=0&d=1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" target="_blank"><img alt="TimeLine_Financial.xls" border="0" height="106" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTBQKRWQKsRKNedGhHOJJVCFo3JLHg5MPBwzo4ov_OUHZ1ieUjW1sDEzq68J1F1XIIADEn94hctjbwFeQyg-IH757skuxLaO31qey9E3L8Ja94n-zOFnS_pQ28QWxpyJis-uYshHwpvp7_/s280/Timeline.png" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Click on picture to download expense tracking, review, budget and financial time line*</td></tr>
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<h2>
Can it really be so easy - if so why don't more people do it? </h2>
First up were are told it is not possible - daily. Retirement has been dolled up over the years as golf, beach, cruises. All of this is a massive sales job. Before you now it big bucks are needed in your pension plan (a million dollars or more in today's money). Don't believe this PROPAGANDA. 
 
These numbers are a natural brake on people retiring early. You get your pension projection in the post giving a pension estimation at 65. Usually falls short of your expectations and encourages you to add more funds. 
 
Message: Just keep on contributing (and paying all of those lovey fees that drive the pension industry)! This leads to 
 
Behavioural change: This perception management encourages irresponsible spending. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"I am paying into a pension so I will spend the rest - this is fragile thinking"</blockquote>
Saving slowly and squandering the rest on a consumerist lifestyle, of junk whose value generally returns to its intrinsic worth of zero over time as it becomes broken, worn or obsolete, keeps you on the treadmill of salary, taxes and fees. Don't FALL for it! 
 
This vicious circle sets high spending expectations in retirement hence the need to save more. We live VERY comfortably on what is deemed a poor family income in France as we have NO DEBT, NO LIABILITIES and LOW FIXED COSTS. 
 
Whats even worse is there no real guarantee of a good pension payment at the end of your working life (think low returns, unfunded liabilities and inflation). I firmly believe this will leave a lot of people in a bad position in the years ahead as we are starting to see in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_crisis" target="_blank">US with state pension funds in crisis</a>. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
BIG IDEA: Everybody needs to be an active manager in their own pensions. Have a plan and a set of pension goals and accept these change over time. </blockquote>
Unfortunately this skill set is not part of the education system which is a topic for another day. I will just question why were are pushed out of the education door, to get on with it, without some basic life skills such as budgeting and planning. 
 
The only way you get these skills are if you are lucky enough to have parents who have filled in the gaps (financial and emotional intelligence to name but two). You have a fascination with making it big or have a mentor of some sort. Knowing the GAME early makes ALL the difference to your future. 
<h2>
Hyper-Normalisation - is there a retirement trap brewing?</h2>
To compound the issue that returns are not knowable in advance. 
 
Things could dramatically advance just think of free renewable energy for all, new industries crop up overnight that revolutionise the world economy and we all get an iRobot each, eliminating the need for hard work and the ability to fund a living wage for all. 
 
On the flipside to utopia we need to consider a few stumbling blocks (until we get our robot;). 
 
One potential issue is that current asset prices and projections are based on perpetual growth calculations. We buy productive assets to pay for our pensions whose price is determined by predicted growth as measured in GDP and profits. These projections are based on historical "norms". 
 
As we all know from history classes and current problems in countries; Argentina, Greece and Venezuela - upheaval can occur in any country devastating the "normal growth mantra", currency value and pension pots very quickly. 
 
Secondly we have no real leadership in the world - challenging the status quo and changing our path to a brighter future.  Leader holy grail is to keep inflation (confiscation) around 2 percent and growth in GDP of 3 percent and debt growing into an even bigger Godzilla than it is now......?). Nothing really changes. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Growth has been great but time is running out on this model - back to the rule of 70 (divide 70 by the percentage growth rate to give the doubling time) - at 3% growth the GDP would double in 23 years. Twice as much of everything...!!! yet we live on one planet and there are some serious restrictions to this thinking.</blockquote>
 
Considering most pensions are based on tracker funds which "diversify" risk buy owning a bit of everything surely this is a problem when we can't have everything when scarcity kicks in. Will luxury goods companies be top of peoples shopping lists? Will people pay for stuff they don't really need in this circumstance? Will society change where conspicuous consumption and keeping up with the Joneses is no longer seen as socially responsible? What happens when cheap debt is no longer available? 
 
Another potential car crash for pension promises is that we are all living longer. Demographics are terrible in major economies (ageing society, less workers per retiree). Populations are highly unlikely to grow at 3% a year.... 
 
People stop spending in later years. They sell investments and assets to pay for their living costs - no GDP growth here then either. 
 
But wait we can just print GDP right.....It's just logical - we currently have already bankrupt public finances and pension entitlements to pay just QE it (the law of supply and demand does not apply), NIRP it (negative interest rates what the!) it to make people spend and soon to be helicopter it (give people the money directly). 
 
There is no real growth here just accounting tricks and boon dongles to keep us hyper-normalised. Slowly boiling the frog. 
 
We are looking at a step change in humanities approach to retirement and entitlements. A new deal will eventually be forced upon us. 
 
Future retirees need to be smart and understand their investments instead of a docile awaiting a check at the age of 65+. Their wad has to be structured in such a way to ride out risks and change to real future conditions of an ageing society consuming one rapidly depleting planet. It need to generate surplus instead of being "drawn down" only then can you be confident to splash out. 
 
This is even more important for people considering FIRE (or FISH :)). Empires rise and fall, companies collapse and new ones are borne. We need to be informed, nimble, reactive, critical and opportunistic to have so many years not reliant on our labour. 
 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
BIG IDEA: "Hope for the best and plan for the worst" Financial Independence must have INCOME above OUTGOING with continued SAVING and INVESTING. 
 
Seeking Happiness means RESILIENCE building and RIGHT SIZING ones LIFESTYLE to a changing society to survive many years free from working for the man or looking. HAPPINESS is NOT looking over your shoulder each day. </blockquote>
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I have a couple of people I want to mention who are doing great work in thearea of building resilience: 
<h2>
 Fragile, Rhobust, Antifragile - Nicolas Taleb</h2>
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I have been a fan of Nicolas Nassim Taleb since reading his "Black Swan" book. He has followed this<a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Antifragile-Things-that-Gain-Disorder/dp/0141038225/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1484474288&sr=1-1&keywords=antifragile" target="_blank">anti-fragile</a>. As I have read it it implies being able to make good by embracing risk and making sure shocks don't really hurt you. 
up with a book on a form of robustness which he calls 
 
I have a few takeaways from his work 
<ol>
<li>Specialism can be very dangerous - what if your job becomes obsolete - can you do other things \ have other skills?</li>
<li>Having all your eggs in one basket is just waiting for someone to knock it over - "safe index low cost funds", stocks, bonds etc.</li>
<li>Being part of the herd will lead you over the cliff - leading a debt based consumerist lifestyle makes you fragile</li>
<li>Taking calculated risks makes you stronger </li>
</ol>
<ol>
</ol>
<h2>
Peak Prosperity - Chris Martinson</h2>
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</ol>
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Secondly I have followed the work of Chris Martinson and his Crash Course which I highly recommend you watch on his website <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/" target="_blank">Peak Prosperity</a>. This shaped our thinking on early retirement, investing and the need for self sufficiency. After all stopping work at 37 and providing for our family until we pass can be a very long time and lots of "Black Swans" can be lurking in the shadows. 
 
Chris covers risks from the three E's. Economy (massive build up of debt). Reliance on depleting fossil Energy supplies (and resources in general) for day to day life. How we need to look after the Environment we live in which provides us with our nourishment (soil building, wildlife (bees) for pollination, water etc. His latest book <a href="https://www.amazon.co.uk/Prosper-Prepare-Future-Create-Inheriting/dp/1937832767/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1484474351&sr=1-1-fkmr0&keywords=prosper+chris+martinson" target="_blank">"Prosper"</a> is a great resource. 
<h2>
More reasons to be ANTI FRAGILE in Retirement</h2>
External Surprises - Life has a funny way of punching you in the
 face. All is fine then wham - the car is written off, you break an arm 
or lose big on your investments. There can be an external shock 
completely out of your control such as war, demographic crash, capital flight and times of deflation and inflation. 
 
<div style="text-align: center;">
This is relying on MULTIPLE DIVERSE sources of income is a must.</div>
 
Challenge and happiness - Taking FIRE
 to live in a modern villa with no way to be a bit self sufficient, the 
bills just covered and a rosy outlook for investment returns is anti fragile and can get you
 in deep trouble quickly. Sitting in the sun and going for your daily swim can become stale quickly, as humans we need to keep moving or wither.  
 
 
<div style="text-align: center;">
You make your own luck and happiness through hard work, continuous learning, making
 the hard choices. All of these must continue throughout life - its what life is
 about, makes you want to get up in the morning and puts a smile on your
 face. I did that!</div>
 
<h2>
Retirement - use it to build inter-generational Wealth</h2>
Our aim is the continuous accumulation of wealth. We want to be able to pass on the knowledge we have to our children so they can do the same for their own. Why? Well the ability to control your freedom is in my opinion a major part of happiness - choosing what you want to do. Money and assets allow you to take risks, build a business out of a passion, make value for the people around you. 
 
Having a framework that makes sure you have real title to assets, legally avoid inheritance taxation (think farmland, 100+ year old antiques, passing assets on before they get taxed) is a real legacy for FI seekers. Building a business to hand over or sell in "retirement" provides a spark to your life, a reason to get out of bed, challenge yourself and keep your self healthy (heath is mental and physical and is WEALTH) 
 
Draw down of assets in retirement is what the state wants - not what you want! That way the next generation have to get to work for the man to pay their taxes. 
 
Why should we just accept this? This type of FIRE is not leaving a legacy behind. It is giving it to the state to squander on its latest pet project. By all means pay you fair taxes I have no problem with that but WILLINGLY give up your CAPITAL at the EXPENSE of your family is another issue all together. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
BIG IDEA: Financial independence is about leaving a legacy of inter-generational WEALTH and KNOWLEDGE.</blockquote>
 
In part 2 of this post I will go through the modest steps we are taking to be anti-fragile and build inter-generational wealth for our family. 
 
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Create a FI plan today*</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Peace, prosperity and happiness 
CoNTeNDeR 
 
 
Welcome New Readers! Please take a look around.<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/about-me.html" target="_blank">Click here</a> to find out more about THE.TriBe and the blog is or perhaps browse the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/all-posts-get-in-ring.html" target="_blank">all posts list</a>, Please feel free to play with the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">planning tools and checklists</a>. If you liked this post can you please spare a few seconds to share it? 
 
* Inevitable legal disclaimer. Everything on this site is intended for entertainment purposes only. I take no responsibility for its use.

Fragilista - Part 1

Our very fragile sink - we are chucking everything at the kitchen sink of 2017 to make it as successful and anti-fragile as possible W...

2 Years of Financial Independence

Contender 3 #financialindependence, Dividends, downshifting, Early Retirement, financial freedom, financial independence, Investing, Life 09:11

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It was easy to get carried away by our dream of financial independence but what about reality? What are the cold hard numbers? Are we any the wiser and have we made a good decision? 
 
Today I am giving you the actual living cost numbers and lifestyle trade offs for your consideration of a Financial Independence Seeking Happiness lifestyle. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
<ul>
<li>A look at our current budget (and comparison to national statistics)</li>
<li>Future cost reductions </li>
<li>What do our investments look like after the house purchase. </li>
<li>Lovin’ the new lifestyle </li>
<li>Is it possible for you - a crude calculation and links to financial timeline planning tool? </li>
</ul>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
Expenditure</h2>
As some readers are interested in living costs in France. I thought I would outline our hopefully-settled-and-no-surprises FIRE costs here. 
 
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFo6gvJiBekoR4-N6rad1ClJ9DaxefVp5dYnREiWaLq19JS-5grMNYo2sWlFIDMB_7PTxRL6xkACghSsiYlgZQPhDGeiLZi4HilfRYwmMbusFvhLknwneFWYQRNwFg3Kqn19s8fJVmsobk/s1600/Expenses.JPG" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="193" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFo6gvJiBekoR4-N6rad1ClJ9DaxefVp5dYnREiWaLq19JS-5grMNYo2sWlFIDMB_7PTxRL6xkACghSsiYlgZQPhDGeiLZi4HilfRYwmMbusFvhLknwneFWYQRNwFg3Kqn19s8fJVmsobk/s280/Expenses.JPG" width="280" /></a></div>
<ol>
<li>We have been spending too much on food. My waistline is a tell-tale sign. It is mainly due to a few parties all summer long (erg every other day) and little indulgences (542 vs budget of 480)</li>
<li>We have more money in the budget for Entertainment than we had initially budgeted for (163 vs budget of 200). Continuous saving can be a means to an end but saving for saving's sake is not fun. This year we will use the savings for entertainment.</li>
<li>Holiday was below budget (202 vs budget of 300) even though we had 5 good trips to the mountains and to Paris.</li>
<li>We used extra fuel (Petrol for clearing the garden and chainsaw work), electricity and water (had to fill the fosse septique for the first time, 5,000 litres of water) when renovating the house.</li>
<li>Clothing has been low as we are currently fully kitted out....for a few months as the kids grow! </li>
<li>We are liable for part of our healthcare costs (averages 34 euros per month including minor surgery, a couple of hospital consultations and numerous visits to the GP).In order to have access to the health system in France it is not just good enough to pay your taxes (aren’t there a lot!). You have to contribute to the system through a job as well otherwise you just have to pay for private cover. </li>
</ol>
 
We like “working” a bit. Mrs C is lecturing at the moment. I am looking at options to generate an income as well so we both contribute to the system. 
<h3>
What is not included and National Statistics?</h3>
We could take out top up health cover for major medical issues which would require a long stay in hospital. Instead of this we are putting aside 100 Euros per month into an emergency health fund. (see the comment above that we are spending on average 34 Euros per month including visits to the hospital at the moment) 
<ul>
<li>House maintenance costs – as we are still renovating - we don’t really include these yet….. estimate 50-100 Euros per month</li>
<li>No life insurance – we save and invest in different ways</li>
<li>Saving for a new car would need to be about 100 Euros a month</li>
<li>Saving for the kids higher education - 100 Euros each per month</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Looking at these numbers we can be confident that our underlying costs are around 1,600 Euros per month (~£1,200, ~$1800). </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This can be compared to the average monthly expenditure in the UK of £2,336 (3,200 Euros). Source <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/12038850/How-much-does-the-average-household-spend-each-week.html" target="_blank">Telegraph</a> and ONS (Office of national Statistics). </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Notable differences are Transport £330pm (452 Euros versus our cost of 175 Euros per month) Housing and Fuel £321pm (440 Euros versus our cost of 198 Euros) </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
 
A couple of other categories that stand out from the ONS £187 on hotels and restaurants per month and £302 on Recreation and culture. (670 Euros per month versus our cost of  353 Euros). </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Just these four areas (Transport, housing, hotels and recreation) the total UK average per month is £1,140 versus our outgoing of £530 a huge difference. </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
These numbers from the ONS are averages. We know the South East of England is much more expensive than other areas. To this point a comparison of any average can be misleading. The average household has only 2.3 persons in the UK. What about a family with kids which will most likely be the composition of an early financial independence seeker? </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The best I have is basic living costs for a couple with two children (deemed essential) from this <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/jul/02/welfare" target="_blank">guardian article</a> and are £1,914 pcm (2,622 Euros)</blockquote>
<h2>
 Further Cost Reductions </h2>
<ol>
<li>We purchase some seasoned wood each year. I am adding to this with wood from the property. The wood heating will cost considerably less than fuel, electricity or gas heating. The log gassification boiler we have installed is super-efficient and takes all types of seasoned wood.</li>
<li>We should be using less electricity. The solar panels and the wood boiler are replacing the electric water heating we had last year.</li>
<li>We will now reduce our use of the car. We had to travel around a lot to get items for the house renovation. The compact Eco Diesel sips fuel.</li>
<li>Homemade tomato chutney is replacing tomato sauce (it’s a start ;). We have loads of homemade jam, soup and compote from the fruit trees.</li>
<li>We have had a small vegetable patch but will have a very large one next year as we will have the time to plant and maintain one</li>
<li>We have connected the natural spring to the vegetable patch to avoid using metered mains water.</li>
</ol>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeZ5aW8rFdgzheDWyYy_thYi4YbWuSihiAa5kIl2Nc2hGF3Xu-ACDEJnD3jZfz1v7_RFAXp0LI-djB_W-waefyRqZeMAYYEP62PuqGSXhr566Qm9AlqSjatkEY8OW4m07xFvIEf5IWe95N/s1600/Gardening.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeZ5aW8rFdgzheDWyYy_thYi4YbWuSihiAa5kIl2Nc2hGF3Xu-ACDEJnD3jZfz1v7_RFAXp0LI-djB_W-waefyRqZeMAYYEP62PuqGSXhr566Qm9AlqSjatkEY8OW4m07xFvIEf5IWe95N/s280/Gardening.jpg" width="280" /></a> </div>
 
NONE of these cost reductions are arduous and many are beneficial to our health.So Is our income sufficient and has adequate safety to pay for the new cat? 
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3frYbclNwi49saqjRcLpnv_ZtOOIVzbAP4A1KlzheZO63fAZ0k2C3zXl639aZyQWURrjcFhL4EWZJOocUCjcgOdyEhP5nNpzjy8HqHA8I0fsTQlEGu4e_9B4V4w5692C0nmjGiPhPfkT-/s1600/Smokey.jpg" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3frYbclNwi49saqjRcLpnv_ZtOOIVzbAP4A1KlzheZO63fAZ0k2C3zXl639aZyQWURrjcFhL4EWZJOocUCjcgOdyEhP5nNpzjy8HqHA8I0fsTQlEGu4e_9B4V4w5692C0nmjGiPhPfkT-/s280/Smokey.jpg" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Smokey the cat - our chief pest controller</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
Investment and Income</h2>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRS9Cw0tLYqyQBhco5pDzZJFmIzwAKBNKkWC4bFfEKkvQI_evDPkGNQC43bvPOB5q4ggdC9GcEeCJ4GNLLsRId4SoU4Gyy1qINJmbb6DcuEEyV3RQAZWUCdVWI8zF2WPd9-qGnqUuRamdJ/s1600/Portfolios.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhRS9Cw0tLYqyQBhco5pDzZJFmIzwAKBNKkWC4bFfEKkvQI_evDPkGNQC43bvPOB5q4ggdC9GcEeCJ4GNLLsRId4SoU4Gyy1qINJmbb6DcuEEyV3RQAZWUCdVWI8zF2WPd9-qGnqUuRamdJ/s280/Portfolios.JPG" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Three Investment Portfolios</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
We run 3 portfolios: 
 
PROTECT (Emergency and opportunity portfolio) – Cash related investments > emergency \ opportunity fund and money for the renovation project 
 
HYP (High yield portfolio) – Consists of dividend paying stocks and property REITs > this pays for our living costs 
 
We would like to maintain the capital until we are able to access our pensions. If it works out well, we will be able to help our kids out. The caveat being that they can stand on their own two feet, confidently and independently first! 
 
We have the safety net of the PROTECT cash in case of emergencies (and a worst case scenario we can sell the house \ downsize \ rent again). 
 
GROW (Future proofing and speculation) – Consists of our pensions. These are mainly equities UK, EU, WORLD and PRECIOUS METALS and one Final salary scheme. This portfolio is our inflation hedge. 
 
As you can see from the pie chart this (pension) is a significant part of our portfolio. We have been prodigious savers and always maxed out our matching employer contributions (e.g. we added 7% and the employer added a maximum matching 7%). We both started investing in our personal pensions plans very early in our careers. 
 
Due to the rising stock markets the pensions have performed very well averaging 7% per year (after fees). 
 
A notable exception is the lack of bonds. The final salary pension, which we do not control, does hold a substantial proportion in bonds. Any shortfall is made up by the company. It is “inflation” protected meaning the pay-out amount will increase in line with inflation. 
 
As we are close to our 40’s we have time to be aggressive (overweight stocks) before switching to bonds. 
<h2>
Spare income</h2>
We have some spare income each month and deploy it in the following way: 
<ol>
<li>Save and invest part of our surplus in a Permanent Portfolio approach in tax efficient savings accounts (PEA in France). The more I learn about investing the more I believe in full diversification and rainy day funds. Sticking to just stocks and bonds I believe would be highly risky for us. There are many financial gurus warning of the drop in the business cycle so we need to prepare for it.</li>
<li>We are going to start a couple of small business which need some money to start up. This will keep the brain cells ticking over and contribute to society. The French government needs all the money it can get its hands on ;)</li>
<li>Have some more fun and interesting trips. We had great holidays this year, spending only just over 2,500 Euros. This included a trips to Paris, Strasbourg, Vulcania (a Volcano Park in the centre of France), visits to the beach (grandparents), a wedding and a trip to the Pyrenees mountains.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjobEOgTgEFsB4-FNnEDL5ZrY87P4M5cb2saIl8RoktzzEdis6qtgU4GN5Fw9zFGICJHhQ2wUICfG3FwrHV9w4tcJvfC-27KV9AYXm0LSMpfNo22ES00JOIQRRrTdUFDaebGSq42zaMyflD/s1600/Holidays.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjobEOgTgEFsB4-FNnEDL5ZrY87P4M5cb2saIl8RoktzzEdis6qtgU4GN5Fw9zFGICJHhQ2wUICfG3FwrHV9w4tcJvfC-27KV9AYXm0LSMpfNo22ES00JOIQRRrTdUFDaebGSq42zaMyflD/s280/Holidays.JPG" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">View from the Eiffel Tower, National Volcano Park and Pyrenees Mountains</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Spend some money improving the soil quality and irrigation around the new property.</li>
</ol>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
2 Years in and Lovin’ it?</h2>
Somehow we have achieved what we were looking for when we decided to ditch the day jobs. 
<ul>
<li>We have a more sustainable living arrangement (food, heat and transport)</li>
<li>More Freedom and a simpler life (no landlord, no job commitments, less paperwork)</li>
<li>Stability – a base with no reasons to move (e.g. job \ landlord wants us out)</li>
<li>Healthier – we cook more food (some from our organic veg patch and fruit trees). We are less stressed (no one telling us what to do, no performance reviews, but still the odd nightmares about corporate life). We work outside on a daily basis. The Gers is one of the least populated regions of Europe and hence has fabulous air quality.</li>
<li>Time to spend with the kids, new friends and think!</li>
<li>Great holidays do not have to be expensive – we have chosen a location where holidays are literally on our doorstop (~2hrs to Atlantic or Mediterranean beaches, the Pyrenees’ mountains and large cities of Bordeaux and Toulouse.)</li>
</ul>
It has not been all plain sailing: 
<ul>
<li>Our income is not as high as expected (dividend cuts). </li>
<li>Income tax is higher in France. </li>
<li>We
 could not find a property at a good price in the local area
 so had to improvise and take on a renovation project. </li>
<li>French 
Paperwork - A major advantage is that Mrs C is French. She has been 
amazing at cutting through the red tape and paperwork.</li>
<li>We see less of of our old friends in the UK(but are making so mnay new friends here).</li>
</ul>
We can’t complain when we look at a list of Lifestyle improvements: 
Was it worth it? Too right. We have never been freer and less stressed. We have learnt new skills, spent quality time as a family and learnt a lot about what makes us tick. 
 
If it has to change in the future so be it. In the meantime we are enjoying the ride. 
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
What about you?</h2>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
We are spending around £1,200 per month ~$1800 for a family of four. This requires an invested amount of £288,000 @5% return per year. A really nice country house with land can be picked up for £150,000 in France. 
 
A crude calculation of Financial Independence 
 
If we take two young people with salaries of £35,000 each. In the UK ~10,000 is tax free and the rest is taxed around the 28% mark in this example. 
 
Your family after tax income would be £56,000. It should be EASY to save 50% of this per year £28,000. 
 
Considering NO interest, investment gains or salary increases it takes ONLY 15.5 years to accumulate the capital above. 
 
Save 70% and the number of years drops to 11.2 years ((288,000+150,000)/39,200). 
 
Now what if you add in investment gains, emergency funds, employer contributions to a pension, help from parent’s etc? Now financial independence really does seem like a real possibility quite quickly. Why not try some numbers out in the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.fr/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">Financial Timeline Planning Tool</a>?</blockquote>
<h2>
Key Learning's and Considerations </h2>
<ul>
<li>You need to have a good financial buffer \ emergency cash fund </li>
<li>Your income should be well above your projected living costs (20%+) </li>
<li>Your income must be inflation proof </li>
<li>A simpler lifestyle is much less stressful and healthy </li>
<li>What we have lost (access to amenities, concerts etc.) we have gained in other areas (access to countryside, quiet). </li>
<li>Changing country is a challenge and your financial situation changes dramatically (our tax free ISA’s are not recognised in France). </li>
<li>Financial independence can be obtained quickly but it is a discipline and has some costs that may not be negotiable. </li>
</ul>
Further reading: 
<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/2012/07/round-5-15-secs-muff-family-financial.html" target="_blank">Family Financial Independence in 7 Years! Almost FI this is how we got there</a> 
<a href="http://monevator.com/how-to-live-off-investment-income/" target="_blank">How to live off investment income</a> 
<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/shares/11466551/10-shares-you-should-be-able-to-hold-forever.html" target="_blank">10 shares you should be able to hold forever</a> 
 
Useful tool: 
<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.fr/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">Financial Timeline Planner </a> 
 
Peace and prosperity, 
 
Contender 
 
* Apologies I have been offline so long - since the move we have not had reliable internet at the house. This is being posted through a mobile phone... We have been promised it will be sorted out soon - all that French paperwork takes time! 
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2 Years of Financial Independence

It was easy to get carried away by our dream of financial independence but what about reality? What are the cold hard numbers? Are we any ...

12 Things to Get your S*** Together

Contender 3 community, Conformity, Critical Thinking, Debt, Early Retirement, Education, financial freedom, Investing 20:32

<h2>
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTZl6uubu1lOl9YfM5suxlFqjrQ705626PDAIix3rpncFpreadsocPi587GoLKl5tGHb8fV6YR03HzusVWCX_15lHpiZcofCzHUJRX3oNWXPsjOp5Il8o8oCVAmElIR9UWE3IMo6Q1hPPK/s1600/DSC_0012.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img alt="Sunflowers at the end of our road in Gascony" border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTZl6uubu1lOl9YfM5suxlFqjrQ705626PDAIix3rpncFpreadsocPi587GoLKl5tGHb8fV6YR03HzusVWCX_15lHpiZcofCzHUJRX3oNWXPsjOp5Il8o8oCVAmElIR9UWE3IMo6Q1hPPK/s280/DSC_0012.JPG" title="Simple Country Living" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Simple Country Living</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</h2>
 
<ul>
<li>In this post we going to consider what if the world worked differently from a personal idealistic standpoint (knowing that it won't happen)</li>
<li>Based on the observations what can we do for ourselves. KISSI - Keep It Simple Stupid Ideas</li>
<li>Followed by a list of useful websites </li>
</ul>
<h2>
I Deny Myself A Simple Life</h2>
Are we programmed from birth to deny ourselves an easy happy life? Importantly, if we went down that route, where is the profit motive, drive and ambition that make us human. This may be one of the reasons that society is setup to guide us to "hard work". 
 
We have to "work hard" as we have been programed in two important ways to make sure this happens 
 
<ol>
<li>To buy stuff we do not NEED. By buying the stuff we do not NEED we become DEPENDENT on the banks for the life blood of LIQUIDITY. We sell our PRECIOUS TIME for LOANS to fund a place in the sun today at the expense of the future.</li>
<li>We are told the future is too far off and impossible to predict. Live for today! If you don't nuclear war is coming, environmental catastrophe will drown you, monsters from the deep are coming and aliens with ray guns are going to fry you. If you ever make it to the FuTuRe don't worry as each generation is better of than the last. "Inflation will erode the value of the loan". "Who knows what the future holds", everything will the s*** so why not LIVE FOR TODAY? Buy stuff it makes you happy and desirable!</li>
</ol>
IT is EASY to be sold down that road when you are young, your hormones are running wild and you have to prove yourself in the adult world. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
My worst purchases were the designer shirts, aftershaves, expensive W I D E S C R E E N  TV new car, new PC (several times) and games console, what saved me was I lived within my means and was comitted to pay down debt but still spend what was left at the end of each month. It had to change and it did due to moving in with my wife to be. We started to think about what the world around us was all different - CoNTeNDer</blockquote>
<h2>
Lets Turn Our World on its Head - What if</h2>
<ul>
<li>On Media - what if it was biased towards real life and real entertainment</li>
<ul>
<li>Positive stories of achievement and real world lives are the headline news</li>
<li>Documentaries and educational entertainment are prioritized in TV programming</li>
<li>The average Joe was the star instead of being bombarded by "beautiful people" </li>
</ul>
<li>On Fashion - was personal from us and not dictated by the fashion house dreams</li>
<ul>
<li>What if the real answer is that someone will fancy you for who you are and not what you buy.</li>
<li>Everyone looked different in the crowd and unique instead of being seen as an "odd ball" </li>
</ul>
<li>On Work</li>
<ul>
<li>What if you achieved in the job because you are spontaneous and talented instead of a great regurgitation of the company line and butt kisser?</li>
<li>What if we did not waste so much human talent on mindless administration jobs and advertising a dream or an inadequacy and did something really useful?</li>
<li>What if work was more financially fair with the difference in the high to low wages in society falling back to historical averages e.g. the guy at the top gets 40 times the guy at the bottom? Is this anti-capitalist or does it help to pull everyone's wages up? The guy at the bottom has more money to spend and invest and the wealth trickles back into the community, the community thrives and the business grows and the guy at the top makes more.....</li>
</ul>
<li>On Friendship</li>
<ul>
<li>You were happy because you had loads of positive balanced friends.</li>
<li>You gave your time freely and cherished giving thanks in kind</li>
</ul>
<li>On Personal Development</li>
<ul>
<li>You worked out how to do things for yourself and were taught that failure is fine just learn a little from the experience.</li>
</ul>
<li>On Finance</li>
<ul>
<li>You were told to shun debt</li>
<li>Taught to control your finances and invest</li>
<li>Easily setup your own business</li>
</ul>
<li>On Health</li>
<ul>
<li>What if we were taught to grow our own food in School</li>
<li>What if we were really taught to understand where our food comes from and its real cost to the body (see <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Food-Inc-HD-Robert-Kenner/dp/B009K86D86/ref=sr_1_1?s=instant-video&ie=UTF8&qid=1408303705&sr=1-1&keywords=food+inc" target="_blank">FOOD INC</a> and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-End-Line-Ted-Danson/dp/B003F8OQUY" target="_blank">The End Of The Line</a> Documentaries) </li>
<li>What if you exercised naturally and regularly - walking to work and the shops, maintaining a garden</li>
</ul>
<li>On Family</li>
<ul>
<li>You had supportive family nearby</li>
</ul>
</ul>
This personal list of observations our Little TRiBe has made down the last few years have really focused our attention on how we avoid DEBT, INVEST and LIVE OUR LIVES today and with THE.FuTuRe in mind. 
<ul><ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<h2>
It's not going to happen any time soon so it is up to you</h2>
Idealism is great. You are philosophising on what things could be like and what deep down you want for your own TRiBe. This is the point that Mr.ReALiSM arrives, pulls your head out of the clouds and douses you with a bucket of cold water. 
 
There are too many interested parties to keep the status quo going. Maybe a butterfly flapping its wings in Connecticut does cause a Typhoon in the South China sea but the average Joe such as the CoNTeNDeR really has his work cut out to make any sort of noise. 
 
Institutions and systems are built up over generations and interested parties have set them up to protect their interests regardless of the odd dissenter in their ranks. Things are not going to change any time soon. 
 
For instance media will not change track any time soon due to its self interest in glamorising people and lifestyles, horror and tragedy - they sell. 
 
Education is provided for the good of the state. It is not providing a full rounded curriculum only what is needed to keep the country running smoothly. They need obedient workers to pay ever increasing taxes.  
 
It is up to indviduals to use our gift to think for ourselves. It is a skill that needs to be mastered, some call it wisdom. (see the post on <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/2014/02/FinancialIndependenceOptimism.html" target="_blank">Positivity, Realism and Pessimism</a> in relation to financial independence planning). So what can we do for ourselves to make our lives simpler, wealthy, challenging and rewarding: 
<h2>
What can one do for ones self?</h2>
<ol>
<li>Learn how to debate, question and think clearly from a young age</li>
<li>Find a mentor, a wise worldly person to talk to and learn from</li>
<li>Limit the amount of advertising and media you expose yourself to - as always question it - is it for your benefit?</li>
<li>Make goals that are what you really want and really need. </li>
<ol>
<li>If being the next Richard Branson is what you want, understand how he did it and work out how to get there. </li>
<li>If you want to be financially independent, understand what type of lifestyle you are looking for and how much income will you need to fund it, then work out how you will obtain the income and how long it will take.  </li>
</ol>
<li>Do not be one of the herd as you will always be average and risk-adverse. Being comfortable is not necessarily free or happy.</li>
<li>Cultivate relationships with a wide range of people - everyone has unique insights to the world around them you can learn from.</li>
<li>Life is a set of challenges for some reason 7 years is usually a good changing point. Get out of your comfort zone on a regular basis, make mistakes and learn from them you will be stronger for it in the future</li>
<li>Read. Books the internet etc. all of that world of knowledge as at our fingertips. There is too much so what do you need to learn at that point in time in your life. Get a book and have a go. Once the skill has been learnt file the skills away mentally (or in a library) for another day.</li>
<li>Accept nothing less than happiness! If you are un-happy move on and do something about it. You are the person in control of the majority of your happiness. You and only you can make a real change. Ditch the bad job if needs be, move, end the bad relationship, kick the bad habits. </li>
<li>Do not accept perfection - it is not possible and will lead to un-needed 
stress follow the 80:20 rule 80% of the results come from 20% of the 
work - delegate the rest!</li>
<li>Ignore other people achievements and focus on your own. Who knows how other people  achieved theirs or how they are funded so don't go there, they are not you. I do not mean ignore the greats such as Aristotle, Socrates, Jefferson et al. just the people next door and in work.</li>
<li>KISSI - Keep it simple stupid ideas</li>
<ol>
<li>Spend less than you earn</li>
<li>Do not accumulate complicated stuff - it is a mental and cost expense for you.</li>
<li>Avoid the need for administration - too many cars / houses etc...TV license and mobile phone contracts.</li>
<li>Keep organized - know where everything is and when it needs to be done (e.g. add your car test to your e-calendar with a reminder).</li>
<li>Stay under the radar - don't gossip or get into trouble.</li>
<li>Take stay-cations enjoy where you live - no cars, planes, passports, booking forms, hotels...</li>
<li>De-clutter / sell stuff on a regular basis and your email subscriptions / junk mail!</li>
</ol>
</ol>
This list could be very long to capture every different angle that is available. It cannot cater for each person's own dreams all it does is point out some of the pitfalls our little TRiBe HAS fallen into in THE.PaST. 
 
Our message is we had to learn to avoid the temptations and bull**** that are thrown at us in the modern world. We had to think long term and work backwards towards our goals. We have had to be adaptable and have changed directions and our aspirations. We have plans for the coming years and fully expect them to change albeit hopefully not as much as in out 20's and 30's! 
 
<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.fr/2012/10/10-career-skills-for-early-retirement.html">10 Career Skills for Early Retirement</a>,  
<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/2012/11/6-habits-for-very-early-retirement.html">6 Habits for Very Early Retirement </a>. 
 
So ask the question what do you really want. That end goal and that good set of goals. Aim for it. Get it. 
 
Here are some useful websites and links: 
<ol>
<li><a href="http://briankim.net/" target="_blank">BrianKim.net</a> - great daily pick me up emails</li>
<li><a href="http://www.stevepavlina.com/" target="_blank">Steve Plavlina</a> - thoughtful personal development website</li>
<li><a href="https://www.stephencovey.com/7habits/7habits.php" target="_blank">Steven Covey</a> - 7 Habits and the 8th Habit- they are even teaching the methods in schools</li>
<li><a href="http://www.stevenaitchison.co.uk/blog/" target="_blank">Change your thoughts</a> change your life</li>
<li><a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/" target="_blank">Mr Money Mustache</a> - frugal living</li>
<li><a href="http://retireby40.org/" target="_blank">Retire by 40</a> - Some great finacial models</li>
<li><a href="http://simple-living-in-suffolk.co.uk/" target="_blank">Simple living in Suffolk</a> - Sound financial and life advice from old blighty</li>
</ol>
A couple of new(ish) financial independence sites from the UK 
 
<a href="http://mistersquirrel.com/" target="_blank">Mr Squirrel</a> 
<a href="http://theescapeartist.me/" target="_blank">The Escape Artist</a> 
 
Peace, prosperity and happiness 
 
CoNTeNDeR 
 
Welcome New Readers! Please take a look around.<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/about-me.html" target="_blank">Click here</a> to find out more about THE.TriBe and the blog is or perhaps browse the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/all-posts-get-in-ring.html" target="_blank">all posts list</a>, Please feel free to play with the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">planning tools and checklists</a>. If you liked this post can you please spare a few seconds to share it?

12 Things to Get your S*** Together

Simple Country Living In this post we going to consider what if the world worked differently from a personal idealistic standpoint (...

Madness of Housing

Contender 1 Budget, Compound Interest, Dividends, downshifting, Gold, Investing, Mortgage 21:41

Madness of Housing

How much should we allocate to housing? - Evaluation with the Financial Independence Timeline Planner Buy or rent your way...

Generational Imbalance

Contender 1 Critical Thinking, Debt, downshifting, Finance, financial freedom, financial independence, health, Investing, market analysis, Oil, Risk, stock screen 10:21

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSSNKQivWXJ9XBSJftBikJ-2GoefB5r_MvVDDmcVEugrhMGSMhyphenhyphenlNSOvp7on_CCxr3iuKckb_BVxQcLBSykjgo6JCZI6wMwra9QPx06TeUtHb4-W8SeKR8Ro2p_m6Ycw96LrXQnEZD345a/s1600/P1030554.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSSNKQivWXJ9XBSJftBikJ-2GoefB5r_MvVDDmcVEugrhMGSMhyphenhyphenlNSOvp7on_CCxr3iuKckb_BVxQcLBSykjgo6JCZI6wMwra9QPx06TeUtHb4-W8SeKR8Ro2p_m6Ycw96LrXQnEZD345a/s1600/P1030554.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtIc6oSNcKRyE9han0R3j6birEGopTQqwO82B1OiWeeybw__clSkyOexBzAebOTxNuU6FbjvPzV6PvUQ5ZAJU76jeB14oMO43djG0U7Aj6pSe1AOqaZloNgEqWeMTSG5GYFIIZn2UoAUPN/s1600/DSC_0016.JPG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a>THE.FuTuRe: "You are getting old Contender, you need someone to look after you like the government......." 
 
CoNTeNDeR: "Promises, promises, promises - all great on paper but they need to be backed up with real deeds and wealth" 
 
In the fields around us the farmers are already bringing in part of the harvest. Most of the farmers we have seen are in their golden years. 
 
Heirs are no longer interested in the family business. They are attracted to the bright lights of the cities. Is the void going to be filled by bigger machines and robots guide their way. Society is ageing... 
<ul>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>Does the natural generational cycle (ageing to renewal) pose problems to future investments </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Where is capital currently being misallocated </li>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>What are the likely investment pitfalls in the years ahead </li>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>Do we need to change the way we allocate capital </li>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>What financial independence opportunities can arise from the boomer retirement and the natural redistribution of wealth to Generation X and Y and Millenials?  </li>
<ul>
<li>Latest Cyclically and Inflation Adjusted Market Analysis Graphs</li>
<li>Latest Dividend Value and Growth Dividend Stock Screen Results </li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
<h2>
A Generational Pyramid Gone Awry</h2>
The developed world has gone through dramatic economic and population growth. Vast numbers of jobs have been created to keep the cohort in pocket and spending. 
 
We thank them for Cheese in Cans, Pink Slime, Asbestos, Nuclear Accidents, Cities in the Desert, Mega bugs such as MRSA, Snout Houses, Dolly the Sheep, SAW films, The Benefit and Entitlement Society..... a benefit to society, get real. 
  
This population growth has had huge implications on the age distribution of society. We now have a more mature society due to improvements in life expectancy and lower birth rates. 
 
<a href="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ScreenHunter_02-Dec.-15-23.47.gif" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="189" src="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ScreenHunter_02-Dec.-15-23.47.gif" width="280" /></a>A smaller group of young people versus retirees  will be paying the benefits older society has bestowed on itself. 
 
<a href="http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/www/external/pubs/issue_papers/IP176/IP176.fig3.gif" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="246" src="http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/www/external/pubs/issue_papers/IP176/IP176.fig3.gif" width="280" /></a>The pyramid (see diagram below) now resembles an imbalanced Thai temple, precariously weak in places but never the less still standing...just....one more gold statue on the top and it is game over. 
 
"Boomers" born after the first world war are now retiring en-mass. They primarily hold the wealth of western nations as well as the important positions in society. They still have the majority of the vote - and they actually use it to their benefit(s)! 
 
Vast wealth and benefits have skewered in their favour from high property prices, ownership of shares / businesses, and cheap access to health care. 
 
It was possible to accrue this wealth as they also benefited from low taxes, free / cheap education, a booming economy (that 'paid for' infrastructure that helped to turbocharge the economy) had access to cheap resources such as oil and land. 
 
20 - 40 year olds are increasingly reliant on the bank of mom and pop to get started in life delaying their true freedom and independence. Their jobs are increasingly demanding, having been <strike>educated</strike> trained to keep the machines running, don't think, just do it in a very productive manner. While you are at it you will have to pay higher taxes for <strike>our</strike> your benefit(s). 
 
Fortunately there is light at the end of the tunnel with the changing of the guard. 
 
As the boomers have to draw down their assets and loose their high profile positions in society their influence will naturally wane. This transition will have significant implications on taxes and investments. 
<h2>
Boomer Misallocation of Capital</h2>
We have been blessed with the boomer improvement in technologies that have driven higher life expectancies, mass long distance transport and the marvel of the internet to name a few. At the same time huge waste (resources) and lost opportunities (free energy) slipped through our grasp in the last few decades. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result." (Albert Einstein)</blockquote>
A forefront critic of the boomers way of life has been James Howard Kunstler. He correctly in my opinion highlights all of the literally stupid decisions that have been made by the boomer generation. Here are a few decisions that really make you go hummmm.... 
<ol>
<li>Too big houses - to many resources used to make them, too many resources to maintain them and too many resources to run them. Just consider all of the paint and termite protection, heating of empty spaces.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://activerain.trulia.com/image_store/uploads/6/3/1/5/7/ar127547375975136.jpg" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="203" src="http://activerain.trulia.com/image_store/uploads/6/3/1/5/7/ar127547375975136.jpg" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">We used to live in much smaller houses in the US <a href="http://activerain.trulia.com/blogsview/1674255/top-5-new-home-trends" target="_blank">Source Activerain</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Too big heavy, inefficient cars to get to the too big house too far away from work. Literally burning capital (fuel) - what a waste? <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2010-05-20-oil%20production-Oildiscoveryvsproduction19302030.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="189" src="http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2010-05-20-oil%20production-Oildiscoveryvsproduction19302030.jpg" width="280" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Peak Oil Production? Something wrong with this picture? <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-stein/the-perfect-storm-six-tre_b_582779.html" target="_blank">Source Matthew Stein</a> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjixcfMgPKV6-SV0R0tucQWnXKYC0DqyLylRJbZz8NLb5p2ZW7b55Yz9V6rpABTuIQhTbNbdvCiNYvHOmU0p51cgG0g63lCKUvpak9SvfNSkm1ddkuL9NVLY_l2srcjT-xN_ak6r8xokon5/s1600/AEO_fig_44.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="221" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjixcfMgPKV6-SV0R0tucQWnXKYC0DqyLylRJbZz8NLb5p2ZW7b55Yz9V6rpABTuIQhTbNbdvCiNYvHOmU0p51cgG0g63lCKUvpak9SvfNSkm1ddkuL9NVLY_l2srcjT-xN_ak6r8xokon5/s280/AEO_fig_44.png" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Gas Production is increasing - Time to Switch to a Natural Gas Car?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Introduction of the consumer model - buy buy buy, throw away or get a bigger house to fill up!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.algalita.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Annual-World-Plastics-Production-in-tons.jpg" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="220" src="http://www.algalita.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Annual-World-Plastics-Production-in-tons.jpg" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Plastic Fantastic until it breaks, degrades or is obsolete</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Creation of powerful self interest groups that are able to buy & erode democracy - keeping the status quo has been profitable for politicians and companies alike. </li>
<li> Accumulation of huge amounts of debt and benefits<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.ericgarland.co/wp-content/uploads/pix/2012/01/Total-Global-Debt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="168" src="http://www.ericgarland.co/wp-content/uploads/pix/2012/01/Total-Global-Debt.jpg" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rising faster than GDP - <a href="http://www.ericgarland.co/2012/01/16/a-quick-observation-on-total-global-debt/" target="_blank">Source Eric Garland</a> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Health / sick care pillaging from the public purse and health. Yes we treat illnesses instead of preventing them. Advertising of known foods and products that damage our health are allowed Freedom of choice right? Where is the profit in selling good healthy food that you do not need to eat in huge quantities and contain addictive unhealthy ingredients.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://healthcaretrends.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/oecd-spend-trends-gdp1.png" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="221" src="http://healthcaretrends.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/oecd-spend-trends-gdp1.png" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Health Care or Sick Care? <a href="http://healthreformtrends.com/2009/08/22/comparison-of-healthcare-spend-us-vs-world/" target="_blank">Source healthreformtrends</a> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
</ol>
<h2>
So What Happens Next?</h2>
What will our ageing societies do with their accrued 'wealth'. Is it going to be sold, spent and squandered. Vegas here we come, exhausting trips to far away lands, Face lifts, Sports cars, Golf, Fishing, Bridge club pointless really. 
 
Perhaps wealth and knowledge (retirement is a terrible thing really - all that know how and wisdom consigned to the past) is going to be passed down, invested or given? 
<h2>
</h2>
Unfortunately I believe the former will happen. Party time for the old timers! You can't begrudge them some of their time in the sun we can just hope it leaves something left over of value for the future. 
 
Do consumption stocks do OK? They will be indiscriminately sold to 'pay' for the boomers retirement along with every other stock but their goods will still be required. 
 
Does the selling have a detrimental effect to the entire market and drive down the retirement income resulting in a death spiral with ultra low interest rates, ultra low bond rates, ultra low dividend returns and lower retirement payouts? 
<h2>
Boomers Change their Consumption Habits</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
Increases in consumption</h3>
<ol>
<li>More health care</li>
<li>More eating out</li>
<li>Continue to work longer to maintain current lifestyle</li>
<li>More luxury goods</li>
<li>Holidays</li>
<li>Retirement entertainment activities (golf, spar, tennis etc.) </li>
</ol>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
 Decreases in consumption</h3>
<ol>
<li>No commute to work</li>
<li>Move to a smaller house</li>
<li>Selling investments to pay for retirement</li>
</ol>
<ol></ol>
<h2>
Younger Generations Deal with the Fall Out</h2>
So how will the boomer benefits be paid for in the mean time, unfortunately through higher taxes. Younger generations will be spending / saving / investing less not a good equation in anyone's book? 
 
Entertainment - less eating out / cinema 
Clothing - wearing out clothes before buying new / less designer brands 
Smaller, more fuel efficient cars 
Holidays closer to home 
Less investments / money to save in stocks / bonds etc. 
 
Does this cause a feedback loop into the ultimate middle class source of wealth - housing: 
<ul>
<li>Boomers want to downshift</li>
<li>Gen X / Y cannot afford to buy a house / apartment and have to rent</li>
<li>Larger sized properties drop in value - boomer that are late to the downsize party are loosing out</li>
<li>Boomers en mass stampede to sell their larger properties making the housing crash worse.</li>
<li>All housing starts to drop in value and finally finds an equilibrium at a fair price for society</li>
<li>Unfortunately this re rating of housing has the possibility to leave devastation in its wake destroying huge swathes of paper wealth.</li>
<li>What inheritance will be left? At least the housing is cheaper!</li>

</ul>
Perhaps this is why the financial system is being propped up with easy QE money to maintain the myth of asset wealth and the massive misallocation of capital that has taken place. 
<ul>
</ul>
<h2>
The Likely Winners in the Inevitable Reallocation of Capital?</h2>
We are going to redistribute capital whether we like it or not. The forceful destruction of debt and serfdom will cause a repricing of assets to their real world price / value. 
 
By this I mean the price of everyday needs (food, shelter and energy) over wants and desires (designer goods, gizmo's, luxury holidays). 
 
Knowing what we do where will the "<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/2013/10/stuck-generation.html" target="_blank">Hero Generation</a>" look to re-deploy this wasted capital creating a new boom in the global economy? A good starting point is to revert back to Maslow's pyramid of needs to get the basics right before wasting capital on silly items and activities. 
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiPzhnQZKdXjs55FOa1tXDqnVAn0uoerYHiP_nkK6TnLLrAQrhb0UPQk4pJ9Vp7Jza3QkXwPo9_-bBvV7P6tbCT0MmzcdHHS3oNCGPMbpDqC6HfcR5ohiHv9hb3Yymxg8NGndjx_dOmIYd/s1600/Maslow.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiPzhnQZKdXjs55FOa1tXDqnVAn0uoerYHiP_nkK6TnLLrAQrhb0UPQk4pJ9Vp7Jza3QkXwPo9_-bBvV7P6tbCT0MmzcdHHS3oNCGPMbpDqC6HfcR5ohiHv9hb3Yymxg8NGndjx_dOmIYd/s280/Maslow.jpg" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Maslows Pyramid of Needs</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<ol>
<li>Energy efficiency -  there are very simple energy efficiency steps that can be taken. Smaller house, well insulated, smaller car, collect rain water, turn off unused electrical goods etc.</li>
<li>All new building needs new planning guidelines based on a community self sustaining design</li>
<li>All products should be built to last - laws can drive this change.</li>
<li>Working from home should be actively encouraged and rewarded</li>
<li>Consumption must be reduced - anything that could go digital should (books, magazines, newspapers, bills, certificates and the like.) </li>
<li>More food needs to be grown locally and exotic food should be taxed very highly to reflect the energy it consumes in transport.</li>
<li>Education needs to change focus to help develop the industrious, autonomous, gregarious, go getting individuals needed in for the rapid re-design of the broken system.</li>
</ol>
All this buys us time to correctly allocate capital into robust 
(Anti Fragile) living arrangements. This would have the following 
benefits 
<ol>
<li>Healthy living- reducing our need for health care</li>
<li>Cheap energy security - compressed air / electric cars run of solar arrays</li>
<li>Reduction in pollution - less packaging = less plastics =
 less toxins = less persistent waste that takes years to degrade = less 
landfill waste.</li>
<li>More biodiversity - just read about the die off of the bees - a very
 bad problem for our food security highly likely related to mono culture
 crops and pesticides.</li>
</ol>
<h2>
Choosing Prosperous Financial Independence Investments</h2>
Perhaps the ever grinding higher stock market indexes will hit a plateau or gradually decline for a prolonged period of time while a readjustment is made. By a re-adjustment I mean a re-allocation of generational wealth from the boomers to us youngsters. 
 
Once this adjustment has taken place a new freer and prosperous time is likely to appear with the rules of the game rewritten in a fairer economic system. 
 
In this is the case a stagnant / declining index is not viable for the 4% draw down rule, which has been fuelled by consistent growth in the world economy, may hit a wall for a period of years through the great reallocation of capital and generational wealth. 
 
Here are some inflation adjusted and <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/market-analysis.html" target="_blank">cyclically smoothed market and commodity data graphs</a> 
<iframe frameborder="no" height="500" scrolling="yes" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVkZHm4bo-_dCoKwvayag7Sb-z8ZGpG3AV1uQoN-Tj0/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" width="750"></iframe>

In this period of time perhaps stock picking wins over index tracking. Perhaps due to the destruction of wealth of industries that rely on huge profit margins from brand loyalty, cheap resource inputs and frivolous spending - avoiding these sectors could be the difference between true financial independence or back to work.   
 
Going defensive by choosing dividend value growth stocks with lower yields in industries with goods and services people NEED may be the better approach to take. Have a look at this blogs <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/stock-screen.html" target="_blank">stock screen</a>*: 
 
<iframe frameborder="no" height="300" scrolling="yes" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rk_3w8cmIsy_vkeiH1W6AHpFpzXXMRnWwsq7HJPb1jE/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" width="750"> </iframe>

These companies could be bought at a current high price to the future as boomers indiscriminately sell off their stocks. The peace of mind is that you can live off the dividends alone that should be safe as the companies profits are derived from people's NEEDS. 
 
Cash equivalents can be kept on hand to wait for the inevitable stock pullback / crash to take advantage of opportunities. 
 
Trailing sell stops can be applied to your current portfolio (on non core holdings) to help preserve capital in the case of a crash. 
 
Peace, prosperity and happiness 
 
CoNTeNDeR 
 
* The stock screen and market analysis information is provided for entertainment purposes only. I have never worked in the financial industry and am self taught. Always do your own research and seek professional advice as required and refer to the big fat disclaimer that comes with this site. 
 
Welcome New Readers! Please take a look around.<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/about-me.html" target="_blank">Click here</a> to find out more about THE.TriBe and the blog is or perhaps browse the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/all-posts-get-in-ring.html" target="_blank">all posts list</a>, Please feel free to play with the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">planning tools and checklists</a>. If you liked this post can you please spare a few seconds to share it?

Generational Imbalance

THE.FuTuRe: "You are getting old Contender, you need someone to look after you like the government......." CoNTeNDeR : "...

Financial Independence through Dividend Value Stock Investing

Contender 4 #financialindependence, Compound Interest, Dividends, downshifting, DRIP, Finance, financial independence, Inflation, Investing, Schiller PE10, stock screen 07:35

<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTnY_L9XJqOYWvr_2yG6VBvMgo2BEmAhKIb2nM0iW5PKHViX2A-o4avtYnVnC7QxUYPEhbrBbDbyRZc9GA17Up6EI8sewVlSrsFXh4lC2IpG0K3M7cR1ZA67PEy2EKZx2VLcfvMvMGZL4R/s1600/InvestmentChoice.png" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTnY_L9XJqOYWvr_2yG6VBvMgo2BEmAhKIb2nM0iW5PKHViX2A-o4avtYnVnC7QxUYPEhbrBbDbyRZc9GA17Up6EI8sewVlSrsFXh4lC2IpG0K3M7cR1ZA67PEy2EKZx2VLcfvMvMGZL4R/s280/InvestmentChoice.png" width="280"></a></div>
#FinancialIndependence requires setting up multiple income streams to replace your income from your labour. 
 
#Downshifting may mean that you still work but rely on a smaller income from some work and possibly some investments. 
 
Today the focus is on dividend value stock investing to provide a passive income. 
 
Buying shares in a company has several advantages 
 
1. You have access to many companies in many different businesses 
2. Companies can grow their earnings and dividends rapidly 
3. Companies can be out of favour and cheap to buy 
4. Companies are strictly regulated and lots of information is available about them 
5. Companies can have a competitive advantage \ high barriers to entry 
<div style="text-align: center;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"One of the biggest mistakes investors make 
is to focus on stock picking for 
capital gains. 
 
The reality is that if you're not looking at 
 
dividends when you buy a company... you're 
likely not going to make much 
AT ALL. 
 
Did you know that without dividends, stocks 
have actually 
UNDERPERFORMED bonds 
for the last 113 years? 
 
This is not hype, a 
study by the London Business 
School found that without dividends, stocks 
return 
a measly 1.9% per year... LESS than Treasuries!" Gains, Pains and Capital</blockquote>
</div>
To help identify companies that are of interest to invest in  I have been spending some time massively improving the stock screening tool  to find some cheap #dividend stocks out there. Here is a look at the new screen (The UK all share list as of the 6th April is available towards the end of the post): 
 
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKG1J-p6L6SRJAhMxH3yBS6dQ3HQd0HFDsBsbGKKdlG11TbNHV0-NzXhOELzI9oWs4T2CX4jPGva84VYnLW65sjurZHqtF68rg-X5Ig_AUuVFilaJc00iwAerwZV9CrpnUfvC8cLgqnAN/s1600/10YrScreen.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="86" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKG1J-p6L6SRJAhMxH3yBS6dQ3HQd0HFDsBsbGKKdlG11TbNHV0-NzXhOELzI9oWs4T2CX4jPGva84VYnLW65sjurZHqtF68rg-X5Ig_AUuVFilaJc00iwAerwZV9CrpnUfvC8cLgqnAN/s280/10YrScreen.JPG" width="280"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sample from a stock screener created with 10 years worth of data</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It has been made very visual with its colour coded formatting. 10 years worth of financial data is used for graphs and calculations. More of the major indices have been added. It has been made easier to use. Easy to personalise with your own portfolio of stocks. Backed by a large powerful data set and statistical data analysis. 
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHX_XuYh9NK5qtOnhOJ7BocXylAjDT-zl3CYmSLkMtSSNH35I31GoG26urt84z1VI677QX1YiyWTDYFK3Nd3QAbpPUwSltlg-npDAfSsgLPQA947E04TNMw3vrP4PtneB0NKsQFcbPQrt4/s1600/PG.JPG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHX_XuYh9NK5qtOnhOJ7BocXylAjDT-zl3CYmSLkMtSSNH35I31GoG26urt84z1VI677QX1YiyWTDYFK3Nd3QAbpPUwSltlg-npDAfSsgLPQA947E04TNMw3vrP4PtneB0NKsQFcbPQrt4/s280/PG.JPG" width="280"></a>
<li>Contains major market data (US, UK, EU) </li>
<li>Current data can be evaluated on the fly for the Value Screener and Dividend Value Screener by clicking the magic button</li>
<li>Stocks can be interrogated individually with 10 years worth of data in the graphical evaluation tool</li>
<li>10 years of financial performance is used to create the 10yr Value Dividend Screener to check the quality of the stock - has it made a regular growing profit and paid a regular increasing dividend?</li>
<li>"My Portfolio" can be setup to show the screener results for your stocks <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s1600/Portfolio.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="101" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s280/Portfolio.JPG" width="280"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td></tr>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_Fe2TuX0Ec6bIb0Eytdx_T-yyKayX4tXgJq9x-XpES2vbkyBSiDs0zJMMrfqicwucnaN-JUD9bIGIkR5EaYaoqqa9j7DXyoEHtTozpMfC3rWVAu_AObPV2n7EN3gkzXl6vz1hUoC2LfIV/s1600/ValueStocks.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""></a>Markets no longer perform true market functions. In markets today, the dead hands of the academic and the rentier have replaced the invisible hand of the merchant or the entrepreneur. James Rickards  </blockquote>
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Why Look at History 
 
The Value Stock Screener and Dividend Value Stock Screener allow the user to click a magic button to download the latest data from the web. The tool then allows individual stock evaluation. The screen looks for undervalued stocks based on the methodology of "The Little Book That Beats the Market". 
 
1. Stocks with a very high Return on Capital - are they a well run business? 
2. Stocks with  high earnings yield (i.e low PE) are they currently cheap 
 
Why a spreadsheet - there are loads of options on the web? So why use this tool instead of one of the numerous screeners out there? Well in my opinion spreadsheets are more personal with the data, you can add your own comments and keep them for reference. Websites have flexibility in the type of graphs and how the data is shown on the screen.  
 
This is great at looking at THE.PReSeNT but this is not the full picture. The stock may be cheap for a very good reason and can get cheaper. 
 
In order to avoid this trap further research is required. 
 
One part of the research is looking at THE.PaST and secondly can we be confident about THE.FuTuRe performance? How good is the stock really? Is the company solid, has solid earnings growth and good dividend cover? This needed to be added. 
 
Introducing 10 Year Dividend Value Screening 
 
Dividend champion investing is not new and numerous lists of stocks that have consistent dividend growth can be found across the web. What is more difficult to attain is weather you are paying too much for a champion share? 
 
<div style="text-align: center;">
We need to gain in capital and dividends overtime. That way buying lowly valued stocks that become expensive can be sold and re-invested to gain MORE income. </div>
 
 
The new screener has the ability to analyse 10 years worth of financial data for selected Markets (NASDAQ, NYSE, DJIA FTSE 100, FTSE 250, DAX, EURSTOX50). 
 
 Its purpose is to ask the following questions: 
<ol>
<li>Is the current PE ratio expensive for the share in comparison to its historical PE10 (10 year average PE      PE10 = 10 year average share price / 10 years average EPS </li>
<li>Is the company growing its EPS (Earnings per share) consistently?      What is the average EPS growth rate over 10 years?      How many years has the company made a profit?</li>
<li>Is the company growing its dividend?     What is the average dividend growth rate over 10 years?     How many years has a dividend been paid?</li>
<li>How much debt does the company currently have?</li>
<li>What overall score is the company on Quality, Income and Value? </li>
</ol>
All of this information is used to create a score and rank versus other companies. 
<ol></ol>
10yr Data Screen Benefits 
 
The screen can be looked at stand alone via Google spreadsheets however the excel spreadsheet has some distinct advantages 
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_9YEXBHqCTE9KtBxO-njGNrubmKJMA3F27OeD2ZoCm3jwf1j93FMnKamE5DFmPzs-6bWwEfZ_8m52kBJNY3vJvGfldpheVj39_1a8uwvv52XGuC_UZdcWGiIAl8C-FosQM6ZKHhjt7WzG/s1600/PG.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""></a>
<li>Enter your portfolio and watch stocks to see what the screen results are. Here is a screen shot with some well known companies:<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s1600/Portfolio.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s280/Portfolio.JPG" width="280"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A manually entered portfolio showing 10YR data quality results and current value result</td></tr>
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</li>
<li>Query the data by bringing up a graphical interface. Here is a screenshot of Proctor and Gamble: <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_9YEXBHqCTE9KtBxO-njGNrubmKJMA3F27OeD2ZoCm3jwf1j93FMnKamE5DFmPzs-6bWwEfZ_8m52kBJNY3vJvGfldpheVj39_1a8uwvv52XGuC_UZdcWGiIAl8C-FosQM6ZKHhjt7WzG/s1600/PG.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_9YEXBHqCTE9KtBxO-njGNrubmKJMA3F27OeD2ZoCm3jwf1j93FMnKamE5DFmPzs-6bWwEfZ_8m52kBJNY3vJvGfldpheVj39_1a8uwvv52XGuC_UZdcWGiIAl8C-FosQM6ZKHhjt7WzG/s280/PG.JPG" width="280"></a></li>
<li>Record reasons for investing in the stock in the spreadsheet for future use <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Lq_hdZnY86jba5V6cMynqSfgWClSeoxuHyKTYBCy9WsKevQjjIft9HBXp2Dkdd7GwuEvZ-jBFRfpv9iQYJeudR6wFuQWwbkJkWjy7DN5q_GO00zvyM4bdFKi1HgPaJDy9tXvrugXDb_7/s1600/Comment.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="18" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Lq_hdZnY86jba5V6cMynqSfgWClSeoxuHyKTYBCy9WsKevQjjIft9HBXp2Dkdd7GwuEvZ-jBFRfpv9iQYJeudR6wFuQWwbkJkWjy7DN5q_GO00zvyM4bdFKi1HgPaJDy9tXvrugXDb_7/s280/Comment.JPG" width="280"></a></div>
</li>
</ol>
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Please read on for the 10 Yr Data Screen for the United Kingdoms FTSE All Share index (Yahoo! ^FTAS):

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