FISH | Financial Independence Seeking Happiness: Compound Interest

Madness of Housing

Contender 1 Budget, Compound Interest, Dividends, downshifting, Gold, Investing, Mortgage 21:41

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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zaf6Yvd60334ooDpU0DMdh_R6NUP35DNZV-wRpcmnv0YsmwQh4-I_izC2UwLYN3-YuebvlmVJCvgAjd8mrH1gukqPLBKeNsuk4wAT9p7tNs08TYvHPDgAWbeJ63uPHIAX8lAC_lNjmQP/s1600/Allocation.PNG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img alt="Plan your finances over a lifetime" border="0" height="85" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zaf6Yvd60334ooDpU0DMdh_R6NUP35DNZV-wRpcmnv0YsmwQh4-I_izC2UwLYN3-YuebvlmVJCvgAjd8mrH1gukqPLBKeNsuk4wAT9p7tNs08TYvHPDgAWbeJ63uPHIAX8lAC_lNjmQP/s280/Allocation.PNG" title="Financial Independence Timeline Planner" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">How much should we allocate to housing? - Evaluation with the Financial Independence Timeline Planner</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<ul>
</ul>
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
<ul>
<li>Buy or rent your way to financial independence - a tricky choice</li>
<li>Why we rented for so long and why we are now settling down</li>
<li>Creating an asset allocation plan</li>
<li>What does this mean to our asset allocation </li>
<li> What would we ultimately like our asset allocation to look like</li>
<li>What about your dream - have a play with the updated Financial Timeline Planner</li>
</ul>
<h2>
Why is housing so expensive?</h2>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjh-Pvb4wgal0sAjvjyP6SMDySd4wmQRHjVXgrzu5sG1gUGYDgs52SwVco0n6wo8VscKc5uMyhgpFJgpfKxyhzrdsukbB9iHEZb7CWK11qwb6cJssuHOb8l9521TcOQzw48F1wNYpQso0m/s1600/P1030980.JPG" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="Will it cost the earth" border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjh-Pvb4wgal0sAjvjyP6SMDySd4wmQRHjVXgrzu5sG1gUGYDgs52SwVco0n6wo8VscKc5uMyhgpFJgpfKxyhzrdsukbB9iHEZb7CWK11qwb6cJssuHOb8l9521TcOQzw48F1wNYpQso0m/s280/P1030980.JPG" title="A Dream Home?" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Your Dream Home? - Maison de Graves, Podensac France</td></tr>
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Housing has been touched upon several times on this blog as it is a very emotive subject. Most likely it will be the biggest purchase and decision you will ever have. Just to make it difficult there is almost infinite choice combined with personal circumstances, desires and needs. 
 
<a class="titlex" href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.fr/2013/10/french-living-quelle-difference.html">French Living – Quelle Difference?</a> 
<a class="titlex" href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.fr/2012/08/round-5-157s-mortgage-or-rent-and-save.html">Early Retirement with a Mortgage?</a> 
<a class="titlex" href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.fr/2013/06/you-cant-take-it-with-you.html">You Can't Take It With You</a> 
<a class="titlex" href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.fr/2013/12/maintaining-wealth-ii-we-are-all.html">Maintaining Wealth II - We are all Investors Now</a>   
 
As for the Tribe our choice has been sitting on the fence saving all these years. Or last rental property 
was a three bed terraced house in London paying £1,400 per month for the privilege. 
taking the 25 times rule for the value of the property we come to a value of £420,000 ($700,0000) 
 
This house is now selling for £650,000 a 50% premium to the rental income - go figure. 
 
Now a a normal mortgage of 3.5X combined salary £650,000/3.5 = £185,000 annual household income. You need to be in (at least) the top ten percent of earners to afford this in the UK: 
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Money/Pix/gallery/2014/3/25/1395752138824/income-figures-treasury-009.jpg" imageanchor="1" style=""><img alt="" border="0" height="168" src="http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Money/Pix/gallery/2014/3/25/1395752138824/income-figures-treasury-009.jpg" title="UK Income Deciles from HMRC" width="280" /></a></div>
Clearly a comfortable Financial Independence in a large city is a costly affair nowadays. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
The rule, “thou shalt not spend more than 30% of thy after tax income on
 housing,” has become impossible for the average person. I think we are 
becoming a “mac n cheese” nation. If the squeeze continues on the middle
 and lower classes, I'm afraid we are going to see a revolt of the 
masses. I'm also afraid that we will see blood in the streets. As a 
result the safest place to be will be on a small farm away from large 
populations. - Richard Russel </blockquote>
Should we have spent more than 30% of our net worth on what we considered expensive property - NO 
<h2>
What are we doing?</h2>
Our TRiBe decided we needed to live somewhere cheaper (south of France) where we have been renting for the past year whilst we have looked to finally buy. After a lot of searching around we have purchased a renovation project. Here is why: 
<ol>
<li>In our early years we moved around with work so buying a home at that time was not appropriate. Stamp duty adds up with multiple purchases. The paying off of university and car debt whilst building of savings (for some reason that felt right at the time) were prioritised.  </li>
<li>Renting allowed us to super charge our savings rate due to the following</li>
<ol>
<li>No renovation costs</li>
<li>Rent was lower than the interest ONLY payments on a similar mortgage </li>
<li>No buildings insurance</li>
<li>"Deposit" and "Stamp Duty" invested instead of "Spent"</li>
<li>Freedom to rightsize and right locate the property as our family grew in size and jobs changed <div style="text-align: center;">
 High property prices in the city meant than an interest only mortgage on a property was more expensive than renting  </div>
</li>
</ol>
<li>Our goal has been to gain financial independence through living frugally. We now live in an area where it makes sense to buy because of the following: </li>
<ol>
<li>Rents are higher than a mortgage</li>
<li>Owning the property outright eliminates interest rate issues and rental price increases</li>
<li>We do not need or want to be mobile - we are happy where we live and have a very good school for our children</li>
<li>We are able to buy some land (and water rights) with the property to grow some of our own food. We have the possibility to raise a small cash crop.</li>
<li>It is in a warm climate so heating costs can be brought down through solar installations and good insulation. </li>
<li>We are "giving up / diversifying assets" some income generating assets for a "family home" and "overall lower living costs". We believe this makes us more Anti-fragile (See book by Nicolas Taleb) <div style="text-align: center;">
We can currently reduce our current living costs through owing our property (at the expense of investment income). We are settling for less income but a more varied asset allocation.</div>
</li>
</ol>
</ol>
<h2>
How much should you allocate to housing or just rent?</h2>
My takeaway from 37 years without owning a property (admittedly some of those were in diapers) is that you need to really understand what will suit you and your family at that point in TIME. Just search for asset allocation on the web and you will be told this way or that way is best such as: 
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Example from <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-portfolio-for-all-seasons-2013-07-19" target="_blank">MarketWatch</a></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
What is REALLY best is being in the right asset at the right time whilst hedging risk. 
 
DIVERSIFY and PRIORITISE/GAMBLE. If only it was that easy and we knew what The.FuTuRe was up to! Unfortunately we cannot all be a Warren Buffet or a Geroge Soros but what we can do is make sure we are knowledgeable, why we are accumulating it and the associated risks. 
 
A well researched strategy, a good set of rules that you adhere to (such as stop losses and booking gains) and try at all times not to become attached or emotional about investment will go some way to being successful.  
<h2>
Our asset allocation</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
Before the purchase of the property</h3>
Income Portfolio (29%)   -  Dividend Value Growth Stocks to pay for living costs 
Growth Portfolio (9%)     -  High growth hence risky investments 
Protect Portfolio (26%)    -  Cash and Commodities 
Pensions - Final salary (36%) - Cannot touch until 55 years old (allocation too high)!!! 
<div style="text-align: left;">
 </div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
To put some perspective on this we are living frugally (with 2 kids!) Our current living costs are £1,500 per month (£540 of which is rent). Our estimated living costs after property purchase £1,050 per month (higher costs for insurance of the property and taxes etc.) and we want to reduce this further. 
 
On the flip side we would be better off income wise but worse off diversified by carrying on renting</div>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
 
After Home Sweet Home purchase</h3>
Income Portfolio (24%)   -  Dividend Value Growth Stocks to pay for living costs 
Growth Portfolio (2%)     -  High growth hence risky investments 
Protect Portfolio (6%)    -  Cash and Commodities 
Pensions - Final salary (36%) - Too high and cannot touch! 
Property / Miscellaneous stuff (32%) - All cost but significant possibility of capital appreciation 
 
...... The pensions are in the stock market and could be considered part growth and income with some fixed income bonds. Ultimately we are aiming for our investment portfolio to mimic the Permanent Portfolio outlined by Harry Browne - 25% Cash, 25% Bonds, 25% Stocks and 25% Commodities so will be focusing on re-building our cash position after the house is done. 
<h2>
Dream </h2>
What would you like to own and when, how do you see The.FuTuRe settled in one place or moving about. Do you want to own a house or your own business..... Will this give you a framework for a goal / challenge and perhaps a straw man plan. These dreams are your long term goal. The are the basis for your final and current personal asset allocation. Work backwards from your goal to work out how to get there. 
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://sites.google.com/site/lifeplanltd/home/TimeLine_Financial_Permanent.xls?attredirects=0&d=1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" target="_blank"><img alt="Click Here To Download" border="0" height="85" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5zaf6Yvd60334ooDpU0DMdh_R6NUP35DNZV-wRpcmnv0YsmwQh4-I_izC2UwLYN3-YuebvlmVJCvgAjd8mrH1gukqPLBKeNsuk4wAT9p7tNs08TYvHPDgAWbeJ63uPHIAX8lAC_lNjmQP/s280/Allocation.PNG" width="280" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://sites.google.com/site/lifeplanltd/home/TimeLine_Financial_Permanent.xls?attredirects=0&d=1" target="_blank">Click Here to Download the Financial Independence Timeline Planner</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
 
Peace, prosperity and happiness 
 
CoNTeNDeR 
 
Welcome New Readers! Please take a look around.<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/about-me.html" target="_blank">Click here</a> to find out more about THE.TriBe and the blog is or perhaps browse the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/all-posts-get-in-ring.html" target="_blank">all posts list</a>, Please feel free to play with the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">planning tools and checklists</a>. If you liked this post can you please spare a few seconds to share it?

Madness of Housing

How much should we allocate to housing? - Evaluation with the Financial Independence Timeline Planner Buy or rent your way...

Financial Independence through Dividend Value Stock Investing

Contender 4 #financialindependence, Compound Interest, Dividends, downshifting, DRIP, Finance, financial independence, Inflation, Investing, Schiller PE10, stock screen 07:35

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#FinancialIndependence requires setting up multiple income streams to replace your income from your labour. 
 
#Downshifting may mean that you still work but rely on a smaller income from some work and possibly some investments. 
 
Today the focus is on dividend value stock investing to provide a passive income. 
 
Buying shares in a company has several advantages 
 
1. You have access to many companies in many different businesses 
2. Companies can grow their earnings and dividends rapidly 
3. Companies can be out of favour and cheap to buy 
4. Companies are strictly regulated and lots of information is available about them 
5. Companies can have a competitive advantage \ high barriers to entry 
<div style="text-align: center;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"One of the biggest mistakes investors make 
is to focus on stock picking for 
capital gains. 
 
The reality is that if you're not looking at 
 
dividends when you buy a company... you're 
likely not going to make much 
AT ALL. 
 
Did you know that without dividends, stocks 
have actually 
UNDERPERFORMED bonds 
for the last 113 years? 
 
This is not hype, a 
study by the London Business 
School found that without dividends, stocks 
return 
a measly 1.9% per year... LESS than Treasuries!" Gains, Pains and Capital</blockquote>
</div>
To help identify companies that are of interest to invest in  I have been spending some time massively improving the stock screening tool  to find some cheap #dividend stocks out there. Here is a look at the new screen (The UK all share list as of the 6th April is available towards the end of the post): 
 
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKG1J-p6L6SRJAhMxH3yBS6dQ3HQd0HFDsBsbGKKdlG11TbNHV0-NzXhOELzI9oWs4T2CX4jPGva84VYnLW65sjurZHqtF68rg-X5Ig_AUuVFilaJc00iwAerwZV9CrpnUfvC8cLgqnAN/s1600/10YrScreen.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="86" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdKG1J-p6L6SRJAhMxH3yBS6dQ3HQd0HFDsBsbGKKdlG11TbNHV0-NzXhOELzI9oWs4T2CX4jPGva84VYnLW65sjurZHqtF68rg-X5Ig_AUuVFilaJc00iwAerwZV9CrpnUfvC8cLgqnAN/s280/10YrScreen.JPG" width="280"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Sample from a stock screener created with 10 years worth of data</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
It has been made very visual with its colour coded formatting. 10 years worth of financial data is used for graphs and calculations. More of the major indices have been added. It has been made easier to use. Easy to personalise with your own portfolio of stocks. Backed by a large powerful data set and statistical data analysis. 
<ul>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHX_XuYh9NK5qtOnhOJ7BocXylAjDT-zl3CYmSLkMtSSNH35I31GoG26urt84z1VI677QX1YiyWTDYFK3Nd3QAbpPUwSltlg-npDAfSsgLPQA947E04TNMw3vrP4PtneB0NKsQFcbPQrt4/s1600/PG.JPG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHX_XuYh9NK5qtOnhOJ7BocXylAjDT-zl3CYmSLkMtSSNH35I31GoG26urt84z1VI677QX1YiyWTDYFK3Nd3QAbpPUwSltlg-npDAfSsgLPQA947E04TNMw3vrP4PtneB0NKsQFcbPQrt4/s280/PG.JPG" width="280"></a>
<li>Contains major market data (US, UK, EU) </li>
<li>Current data can be evaluated on the fly for the Value Screener and Dividend Value Screener by clicking the magic button</li>
<li>Stocks can be interrogated individually with 10 years worth of data in the graphical evaluation tool</li>
<li>10 years of financial performance is used to create the 10yr Value Dividend Screener to check the quality of the stock - has it made a regular growing profit and paid a regular increasing dividend?</li>
<li>"My Portfolio" can be setup to show the screener results for your stocks <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s1600/Portfolio.JPG" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="101" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s280/Portfolio.JPG" width="280"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_Fe2TuX0Ec6bIb0Eytdx_T-yyKayX4tXgJq9x-XpES2vbkyBSiDs0zJMMrfqicwucnaN-JUD9bIGIkR5EaYaoqqa9j7DXyoEHtTozpMfC3rWVAu_AObPV2n7EN3gkzXl6vz1hUoC2LfIV/s1600/ValueStocks.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""></a>Markets no longer perform true market functions. In markets today, the dead hands of the academic and the rentier have replaced the invisible hand of the merchant or the entrepreneur. James Rickards  </blockquote>
</div>
Why Look at History 
 
The Value Stock Screener and Dividend Value Stock Screener allow the user to click a magic button to download the latest data from the web. The tool then allows individual stock evaluation. The screen looks for undervalued stocks based on the methodology of "The Little Book That Beats the Market". 
 
1. Stocks with a very high Return on Capital - are they a well run business? 
2. Stocks with  high earnings yield (i.e low PE) are they currently cheap 
 
Why a spreadsheet - there are loads of options on the web? So why use this tool instead of one of the numerous screeners out there? Well in my opinion spreadsheets are more personal with the data, you can add your own comments and keep them for reference. Websites have flexibility in the type of graphs and how the data is shown on the screen.  
 
This is great at looking at THE.PReSeNT but this is not the full picture. The stock may be cheap for a very good reason and can get cheaper. 
 
In order to avoid this trap further research is required. 
 
One part of the research is looking at THE.PaST and secondly can we be confident about THE.FuTuRe performance? How good is the stock really? Is the company solid, has solid earnings growth and good dividend cover? This needed to be added. 
 
Introducing 10 Year Dividend Value Screening 
 
Dividend champion investing is not new and numerous lists of stocks that have consistent dividend growth can be found across the web. What is more difficult to attain is weather you are paying too much for a champion share? 
 
<div style="text-align: center;">
We need to gain in capital and dividends overtime. That way buying lowly valued stocks that become expensive can be sold and re-invested to gain MORE income. </div>
 
 
The new screener has the ability to analyse 10 years worth of financial data for selected Markets (NASDAQ, NYSE, DJIA FTSE 100, FTSE 250, DAX, EURSTOX50). 
 
 Its purpose is to ask the following questions: 
<ol>
<li>Is the current PE ratio expensive for the share in comparison to its historical PE10 (10 year average PE      PE10 = 10 year average share price / 10 years average EPS </li>
<li>Is the company growing its EPS (Earnings per share) consistently?      What is the average EPS growth rate over 10 years?      How many years has the company made a profit?</li>
<li>Is the company growing its dividend?     What is the average dividend growth rate over 10 years?     How many years has a dividend been paid?</li>
<li>How much debt does the company currently have?</li>
<li>What overall score is the company on Quality, Income and Value? </li>
</ol>
All of this information is used to create a score and rank versus other companies. 
<ol></ol>
10yr Data Screen Benefits 
 
The screen can be looked at stand alone via Google spreadsheets however the excel spreadsheet has some distinct advantages 
<ol>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_9YEXBHqCTE9KtBxO-njGNrubmKJMA3F27OeD2ZoCm3jwf1j93FMnKamE5DFmPzs-6bWwEfZ_8m52kBJNY3vJvGfldpheVj39_1a8uwvv52XGuC_UZdcWGiIAl8C-FosQM6ZKHhjt7WzG/s1600/PG.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""></a>
<li>Enter your portfolio and watch stocks to see what the screen results are. Here is a screen shot with some well known companies:<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s1600/Portfolio.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYIgQZ-EaJrZ7NJH1g0-aW4PDlIhsaiHrjFdZUnmXgD-CTQV0oWnDAVFvDoMqg7y-xDvuGxFB4GKB7SukMemE26DSlNCq0nYYwP0zvMbHeHO9PZu6FU_-O1vwDtpOX2AtvXQuNcZ4t0z6q/s280/Portfolio.JPG" width="280"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A manually entered portfolio showing 10YR data quality results and current value result</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Query the data by bringing up a graphical interface. Here is a screenshot of Proctor and Gamble: <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_9YEXBHqCTE9KtBxO-njGNrubmKJMA3F27OeD2ZoCm3jwf1j93FMnKamE5DFmPzs-6bWwEfZ_8m52kBJNY3vJvGfldpheVj39_1a8uwvv52XGuC_UZdcWGiIAl8C-FosQM6ZKHhjt7WzG/s1600/PG.JPG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_9YEXBHqCTE9KtBxO-njGNrubmKJMA3F27OeD2ZoCm3jwf1j93FMnKamE5DFmPzs-6bWwEfZ_8m52kBJNY3vJvGfldpheVj39_1a8uwvv52XGuC_UZdcWGiIAl8C-FosQM6ZKHhjt7WzG/s280/PG.JPG" width="280"></a></li>
<li>Record reasons for investing in the stock in the spreadsheet for future use <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Lq_hdZnY86jba5V6cMynqSfgWClSeoxuHyKTYBCy9WsKevQjjIft9HBXp2Dkdd7GwuEvZ-jBFRfpv9iQYJeudR6wFuQWwbkJkWjy7DN5q_GO00zvyM4bdFKi1HgPaJDy9tXvrugXDb_7/s1600/Comment.JPG" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="18" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0Lq_hdZnY86jba5V6cMynqSfgWClSeoxuHyKTYBCy9WsKevQjjIft9HBXp2Dkdd7GwuEvZ-jBFRfpv9iQYJeudR6wFuQWwbkJkWjy7DN5q_GO00zvyM4bdFKi1HgPaJDy9tXvrugXDb_7/s280/Comment.JPG" width="280"></a></div>
</li>
</ol>
<ul>
</ul>
Please read on for the 10 Yr Data Screen for the United Kingdoms FTSE All Share index (Yahoo! ^FTAS):

Financial Independence through Dividend Value Stock Investing

#FinancialIndependence requires setting up multiple income streams to replace your income from your labour. #Downshifting may mean that...

Dividend Surprise Part 2

Contender 0 Compound Interest, Dividends, DRIP, Early Retirement, Finance, financial freedom, financial independence 08:49

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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Risky business be careful!</td></tr>
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After taking a parting blow to the head from CHEAP.SHOT his sparring buddy THE.CONTENDER was dazed and disorientated. Is the right thing to be doing, he asked himself? This fighting THE.FUTURE stuff is quite risky. Is he risking it all on black? 
 
CHEAP.SHOT: "CONTENDER! CONTENDER! are you alright? Sorry mate I thought we were still sparring. I did not hear PLAN.AHEAD calling us over" 
 
PLAN.AHEAD took THE.CONTENDER to one side: "Look what happened, you dropped your guard. You thought you were safe and in control. This is a risky business and you need to have your wits about you at ALL times" 
 
In part 1 of this post (found here) we had a look at the pros and cons of dividend investing. Here in Part 2 we are going to have a look at the risks of investing in dividend stocks, our strategy and tracking progress. 
 
Personal Financial Goals 
 
As we are well into our financial freedom plans we have been fortunate to accumulate enough savings and investments to be very close to our desired goal. This is to buy a "nice" property in France and enough passive income to cover living costs. Currently this nest-egg is 2/3 in cash and funds and 1/3 is in dividend stocks. Ultimately we need our investments setup in the following manner: 
<ul>
<li>45% in cash to buy a property outright </li>
<li>45% in dividend stocks. We are aware the nominal value will rise and fall with the market and company performance but the income that we need will hopefully grow over time. </li>
<li>10% in our protection portfolio for emergencies cash and cash alternatives such as precious metals.</li>
</ul>
So what do I think are the risks that lie ahead for this approach if we follow this route? 
<ul>
</ul>
Mitigating Currency Risk 
 
US
 shares carry a premium (more costly / lower yield) to them but the dollar is the reserve currency 
of the world. Likewise UK and Continental European stocks carry Pound 
Sterling and Euro risk (get the money printing presses ready, Mr Carney - New Bank of England Governor) 
 
We are going to be living in France and paying for everything in Euros so what do we think are our options to reduce currency risk? 
 
a)
 Ideally we want to have much more income than outgoings if possible. This is the 
ideal situation as we can continue to invest and grow our income and 
it will provide a buffer in hard times. Likelihood low - we want to spend as much as possible on a home. 
 
b) Investments will be made in countries with strong currency fundamentals and good 
trade agreements that avoid double or punitive taxation. Global low cost
 funds can help to mitigate currency risk instead of trying to work out 
the "best" country to invest in. In our case we cannot invest in funds in the short term due to higher French taxation. Our income will be paid in multiple currencies before being converted to Euros. 
 
c) PROTECTION - our cash will be spread across different currencies and cash equivalents. Primarily this will be covered by income from multiple countries in the form of dividends, pounds, euros and some precious metals fund. 
 
d) We will monitor all investments and country risk monthly and change the mix of the portfolio as required. Our monthly dividend tracker and risk evaluator is outlined below. 
 
There are several countries and currencies that are of interest to our little tribe Canada, China, Chile, Singapore and to a lesser extent Brazil, countries located in Eastern Europe and Australia. 
 
Canada and Chile are of interest for example as they both have growing populations, an abundance of natural
 resources, are business friendly and have a lot of undeveloped land for agriculture and natural resources. 
 
For more on risk management and the low cost fund approach to investing have a look at the videos on the <a href="http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Video:Bogleheads%C2%AE_investment_philosophy" target="_blank">Bogleheads wiki</a>. 
 
<div style="text-align: center;">
Please read on to have a look at the tribes own strategy and progress</div>

Dividend Surprise Part 2

Risky business be careful! After taking a parting blow to the head from CHEAP.SHOT his sparring buddy THE.CONTENDER was dazed and di...

Dividend Surprise Part 1

Contender 3 Compound Interest, Dividends, DRIP, Early Retirement, Finance, financial freedom, financial independence 12:46

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJUN69d_sRVQbJi0ZIYrOWP42BmCXOhW8tlAQcuk4tz4RUn4yAZGmybCpJHMsbv7fwfIZDU74zjN94ghPbKaT7rxBk7t4wfJgPIE6ihorwA34RhH_aZLzgGAJpz178x1X3aT9Lx6n5npuW/s1600/Cash.jpg" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJUN69d_sRVQbJi0ZIYrOWP42BmCXOhW8tlAQcuk4tz4RUn4yAZGmybCpJHMsbv7fwfIZDU74zjN94ghPbKaT7rxBk7t4wfJgPIE6ihorwA34RhH_aZLzgGAJpz178x1X3aT9Lx6n5npuW/s280/Cash.jpg" width="280"></a></div>
THE FUTURE: "Jobs are being created, resources are abundant and technology is amazing - go out and enjoy yourself - I will look after you!"   
PLAN.AHEAD: "That is all good mate but I want options. I want freedom to do as I wish. If I spend all my money today I will have none for tomorrow" 
CONTENDER: "What about dividend investing, will this work?"  
PLAN.AHEAD: "Contender, the stock market is a casino mate! you have less chance in it than in the ring with THE.FUTURE!" 
Over the past 12 months a lot of work has been carried out to develop a strategy for a sustainable dividend income for our Tribe.  
 
Part 1 of this post is going to look at the pros and cons of dividends versus capital appreciation of stocks. Part 2 is going to look at risks of investing in dividend stocks, our strategy and tracking progress. 
 
The Tribes Dividend Journey 
 
We have been investing heavily for the past 7 years in three portfolios GROWTH, INCOME and PROTECTION (covered here). It is only in the last year we have been heavily interested in increasing the share of the INCOME portfolio. In particular we are buying individual company shares for their dividends. 
 
To get to the target we are gradually selling our tracker funds from the GROWTH 
(Primarily global, European and emerging markets) and adding capital 
from dividends and adding income from Mrs C's [delete] income into individual shares. The PROTECT portfolio is staying static. 
 
In the current climate of a historically high priced stock market (P/E ratios are at towards the top of their historical trading ranges) and what THE.CONTENDER considers a stagflation environment this poses several concerns about the timing of owning MORE shares. 
 
We currently live in a very different financial landscape with lots of printed money circling the globe. This is very supportive of stocks so there is no reason to believe the stock market will capitulate just yet. 
 
<ul>
<li>Our exercise is moving money out of one group of shares (funds) to another group (individual dividend stocks) </li>
<li>We are adding some extra earned income so we are in effect nearly neutral on purchases.</li>
<li>Our objective is all about GROWING INCOME over CAPITAL APPRECIATION. </li>
<li>We are comfortable in owning a large amount of stocks but... we want to be more DEFENSIVE with the choice of these shares. </li>
<li>We are buying shares in these sectors that we consider DEFENSIVE: utilities, energy and pharmaceutical.</li>
<li>We consider their goods and services as a "need" instead of "want". </li>
<li>We understand dividends can be variable such as energy companies that are beholden to the underlying price the the commodity they are selling.</li>
<li>We hold some fixed income assets (preference shares and cash accounts) </li>
</ul>
While it may seem a little Kamikaze to keep holding so much wealth in stocks at the moment we are buying them for their income, not overall value (appreciation is desired ;). 
 
Perhaps lots of cash is better? Unfortunately like anything in life it is all about risk aversion. Cash loses value to inflation but is safe. At our point in our lives we are do [which one?] not need to be overly safe. If a problem happens we will do what it takes to get back on track. 
 
We are aiming for 80% INCOME and 20% in GROWTH and PROTECTION after the purchase of a property in FRANCE and the semi early retirement situation we are looking for. 
 
Starting a portfolio 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin   </blockquote>
We have read about dividend investing from several sites and blogs such as the <a href="http://dividendmonk.com/" target="_blank">dividend monk</a>, <a href="http://seekingalpha.com/" target="_blank">seekingalpha</a>, <a href="http://monevator.com/" target="_blank">monevator </a>and several early financial independence blogs such as <a href="http://www.bravenewlife.com/" target="_blank">brave new life</a>, <a href="http://retireby40.org/" target="_blank">retire by 40</a> and <a href="http://jlcollinsnh.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">jlcollinsnh</a>. 
 
We have a list of our our current holdings and the current dividend income they provide per month. We have added "what if" we bought x shares in each company to work out what the portfolio could look like to generate our desired final income (more detail will be provided in part 2 of the post). 
 
All of the stocks are researched  (Mr C spends lots of time on this) and evaluated. Decision of what to buy each month are made by having a look at share valuations and performance. We are currently concerned about buying some of the shares we have identified that have had large run ups at the start of the year (typically 10-20%). 
 
We are currently targeting the "laggards" - shares that are behind the market gains. Is this a good approach? Laggards are usually laggards for a reason? Well perhaps that is because their sector is out of favor and might be the next "performer". There is a "risk on" appetite in the market so some defensive sectors have been laggards / sold off in favor of stocks with perhaps more growth prospects. 
 
Please read on for: Are companies paying dividends the right choice? High paying dividend stock considerations. Dividend champion investing.

Dividend Surprise Part 1

THE FUTURE : "Jobs are being created, resources are abundant and technology is amazing - go out and enjoy yourself - I will look afte...

Get Real

Contender 0 Compound Interest, Early Retirement, financial freedom, financial independence, Gold, Investing, Oil, Schiller PE10, Silver, Wheat 14:40

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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Real Stuff (munkee.com)</td></tr>
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 PLAN.AHEAD: "Where have you been CONTENDER we need to get on with your training?" 
 THE.CONTENDER: "THE FUTURE caught our little tribe out with the evil flu but we are back in the game now" 
PLAN.AHEAD: "Right C your NEW training program is called LEARN.SOMETHING.USEFUL" 
THE.CONTENDER: "Is it going to help me defeat THE FUTURE?" 
PLAN.AHEAD: "Now don't get carried away. One step at a time. I have so many things you need to learn. What I need from you is Focus, Listen and Actually Understand, Take your time and let it all sink in" 
THE.CONTENDER: "Yes master tell me tell me I want to know the secrets of the FINANCIAL.INDEPENDENCE.SHIELD and the HAPPINESS.PUNCH (hopefully it is alcoholic ;) 
 
In this post a thesis that the next 30 years are going to be very different than the last 30 years (à la <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/" target="_blank">Chris Martinson</a>). In particular considering investing in REAL NECESSITIES instead of passive INDEX investing. 
 
Next post will provide a new stock screening tool that analyses up to 3000 stocks at a time AND an update to CERP - financial planning tool to incorporate an individual stock analysis dashboard as well as a 10x boost to the speed of the tool! 
 
 
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 <td align="LEFT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" valign="MIDDLE" width="86"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixsW1tSr0uN17TLT7YiYcKtYe85tEElmonx8j-4pxdjhZBPdm5DPx8ZODkvNJsvmxcy6TCDMaBhezwmRd-h6LIRb-woGDrLm2FGQnyI-Wt9Xlkf89JmH7h9Bkd2xTE8kcJ5k5Fnc87RZsh/s1600/Stock+Screener.JPG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="90" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixsW1tSr0uN17TLT7YiYcKtYe85tEElmonx8j-4pxdjhZBPdm5DPx8ZODkvNJsvmxcy6TCDMaBhezwmRd-h6LIRb-woGDrLm2FGQnyI-Wt9Xlkf89JmH7h9Bkd2xTE8kcJ5k5Fnc87RZsh/s200/Stock+Screener.JPG" width="200"></a></td>
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 <td align="LEFT" height="19" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" valign="MIDDLE">Stock analysis of debt, dividend sustainability and the dividend discount model for intrinsic value evaluation</td>
 <td align="LEFT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" valign="MIDDLE">Stock screener for company quality and return on capital</td>
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Return of Capital 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"It not the return on capital but the return of capital" - Jim Rodgers 
 
 "The first rule of investing has always been don't lose money!" - Warren Buffet</blockquote>
 
For those seeking very early financial independence we need to to grow money faster than inflation and build up a passive income. 
 
In order to do this THE.CONTENDER has looked to first understand what is money and investing (after making a few mistakes) before taking the plunge into the stock market. 
 
Ever since our Tribe started to invest in precious metals in 2005 (a very small amount after talking to an investment banker at a party and being inspired by his outlook on investment) we have been interested in what is money? Why is it valuable? Why does it lose its value over time? 
 
We want our savings to AT LEAST buy comparative goods in the future. $10 for a bag of potatoes today + bank account interest should cost $10 in five years time. 
 
If we are growing our money what is the REAL return after inflation? 
 
10 years ago you could get a loaf of bread for 0.5 monetary units,  now it costs 1.5 monetary units in only 10 years! Supposedly technology has improved so the cost of my loaf of bread should be coming down right??!!!: 
<ol>
<li>Transport is more efficient (we mix truck loads to get max fill / weight ratios with complex computer programs and collaboration across multiple companies)  </li>
<li>Energy is captured and recycled in the baking process  </li>
<li>Agriculture productivity is up - better machines, fertilizers and weather prediction systems....  </li>
<li>Waste is down due to efficient inventory management and improved sales forecasting.  </li>
<li>Competition is rife and profit margins are being reduced  </li>
<li>The USA is going to be energy independent and oil and gas prices are going to plummet!</li>
</ol>
Why Why Why has the cost of my loaf of bread trebled after all of these cost saving improvements? Why is THE.CONTENDER paying so much more for the basics of life compared to 10 years ago. Inflation has been reported as very low.....????

Get Real

Real Stuff (munkee.com) PLAN.AHEAD: "Where have you been CONTENDER we need to get on with your training?" THE.CONTENDER: ...

Risk Versus Reward

Contender 0 Black Swan, Compound Interest, Critical Thinking, Dividends, Finance, financial independence, Inflation, Investing, Risk 19:56

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqSHxBb_VsqKo0kkIJNsxGUkpyu_Oe9SXJ6w6KofHsp2AhOeh5qfyBP8wKid-Dw0Drg1SFnTOtVtOwl5X8e7bY6MvtDGqLio9uEI2fOjVkUDA1GSSJ82iv819QX_t4WYz_byprTgp6ELtM/s1600/AngelfishGlovesOff.jpg" imageanchor="1" style=""><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqSHxBb_VsqKo0kkIJNsxGUkpyu_Oe9SXJ6w6KofHsp2AhOeh5qfyBP8wKid-Dw0Drg1SFnTOtVtOwl5X8e7bY6MvtDGqLio9uEI2fOjVkUDA1GSSJ82iv819QX_t4WYz_byprTgp6ELtM/s200/AngelfishGlovesOff.jpg" width="200"></a> 
Is THE.CONTENDER risking a knockout blow? 
 
 
THE.CONTENDER thought he would write a post on perceived Risk versus Reward when investing. THE.CONTENDER compared the THE.CONTENDER strategy against a couple of very successful savvy bloggers. THE.CONTENDER 's investment plan can be summarised in one simple statement "save as much as possible, in stocks that have a high risk \ reward profile early in life then choose lower risk stocks later". That was the easy part. The next part was devising a strategy to max out the strategy for early financial freedom. The THE.CONTENDER approach is covered in more detail in "<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/round-5-156s-investment-challenges.html" target="_blank">Investment Challenges</a>". Here are links to a few articles from the bloggers THE.CONTENDER was talking about earlier: 
 
<div class="pagetitle">
 <a href="http://jlcollinsnh.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">jlcollinsnh</a> </div>
<ol>
<li><a href="http://jlcollinsnh.wordpress.com/2012/05/12/stocks-part-vi-portfolio-ideas-to-build-and-keep-your-wealth/" target="_blank">Stocks part vi portfolio ideas to build and keep your wealth</a> </li>
<li><a href="http://jlcollinsnh.wordpress.com/2012/05/12/stocks-part-vi-portfolio-ideas-to-build-and-keep-your-wealth/" target="_blank">How I failed my daughter and a simple path to wealth</a></li>
</ol>
<a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/" target="_blank">Mr Money Mustache</a> 
 
<ol>
<li><a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/05/18/how-to-make-money-in-the-stock-market/" target="_blank">How to make money in the stock market</a> </li>
<li><a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/06/07/where-should-i-invest-my-short-term-stash/" target="_blank">Where should I invest my short term stash?</a> </li>
<li><a href="http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2011/09/15/a-brief-history-of-the-stash-how-we-saved-from-zero-to-retirement-in-ten-years/" target="_blank">A Brief History of the ‘Stash: How we Saved from Zero to Retirement in Nine Year</a></li>
</ol>
(Other early financial freedom bloggers: <a href="http://gooddaytolive.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">A Good Day to Live</a>, <a href="http://www.bravenewlife.com/" target="_blank">Brave New Life</a> and <a href="http://earlyretirementextreme.com/" target="_blank">Early Retirement Extreme</a>) 
 
<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.co.uk/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="" border="0" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2_tJJBfdEcjYj8hSe6G74uOkYPZdhtdvUjHlD66iDSU-DDkHu3ga_HfgHks_i1d_8T14tBYvTCra_s6KmbaqeiUZkh0TVDkWPeTO1BasqeCXSrNbM009OsiGvcohCmAN1cKCIvm1mpU_e/s200/Muff+Tool+Kit+v6.jpg" title="PLANNING TOOLS AND CHECKLISTS" width="200"></a>First, both of these guys have made it, are financially free and are still able to save and invest each month. Both guys built significant savings through very hard work and dedication in their employment and investing decisions. Hats off to both of them. This blog highly recommends working through their sites for insights on finance and life. 
 
Next, let's start a comparison of the different strategies:

Risk Versus Reward

Is THE.CONTENDER risking a knockout blow? THE.CONTENDER thought he would write a post on perceived Risk versus Reward when investing...

Four Key Planning Rules

Contender 0 Compound Interest, Critical Thinking, Planning, Risk, Rules, Saving 21:44

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<h2>
Pulling himself off the floor and onto the ropes - Learning to fight back</h2>
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THE.CONTENDER has always had a go at work and life challenges and took some knocks along the way. THE.CONTENDER never liked failure and generally took failure to heart (still the case). Perhaps that was because THE.CONTENDER was never really taught that failure was actually a really good thing. Learning from mistakes is a gift and structured feedback is invaluable (but don't repeat the mistake again!). 
 
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THE.CONTENDER has learned a some very important lessons and skills from my failure in work that are invaluable in my personal life. </div>
 
Interestingly, in my corporate career, having a go was not really encouraged. Generally it was do as your are told and cover your back. THE.CONTENDER found that having a go in work came at a cost to my career. Steady as she goes and take you time to set expectations. Expectations were everything. 
 
THE.CONTENDER may have been late on a few projects but why the demonisation of the late delivery? The new process THE.CONTENDER had devised off his own back was saving significant time and money. It was all politics, egos and control tactics. As a result the majority of people kept their heads down and just wanted to go home each day. Is this true in other workplaces? 
 
Failure at a young age should be embraced and encouraged. With extra coaching expectations can be managed while problem solving and common sense nurtured. THE.CONTENDER's mistakes in the work environment could have been "learnt" earlier. Here are some of them: 
 
<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.co.uk/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;" target="_blank"><img alt="" border="0" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2_tJJBfdEcjYj8hSe6G74uOkYPZdhtdvUjHlD66iDSU-DDkHu3ga_HfgHks_i1d_8T14tBYvTCra_s6KmbaqeiUZkh0TVDkWPeTO1BasqeCXSrNbM009OsiGvcohCmAN1cKCIvm1mpU_e/s200/Muff+Tool+Kit+v6.jpg" title="PLANNING TOOLS AND CHECKLISTS" width="200"></a> 
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<li>Keep it simple stupid -  being well educated I expected other people to be able to understand complex issues as well.</li>
<li>Setting expectations and planning ahead - being over optimistic can cause problems come up with a plan make sure it is realistic (criticize it) make sure if it is going wrong you are open and address the issues early.</li>
<li>Falling for the latest gimmick - this can being sold some thing you don't need at great cost and time to making bad choices (where to live, choice of job, latest investment mania)</li>
<li>Is there another way to get this done faster what are the risks if we go down this route and how do we manage them?</li>
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This blog is my attempt to take some of the "work" tools and skills and adapt them to life in general. Here are the 4 core principles of this blog which may well expand with time. 
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Four Key Planning Rules

Pulling himself off the floor and onto the ropes - Learning to fight back THE.CONTENDER has always had a go at work and life ...