FISH | Financial Independence Seeking Happiness: Oil

Generational Imbalance

Contender 1 Critical Thinking, Debt, downshifting, Finance, financial freedom, financial independence, health, Investing, market analysis, Oil, Risk, stock screen 10:21

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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSSNKQivWXJ9XBSJftBikJ-2GoefB5r_MvVDDmcVEugrhMGSMhyphenhyphenlNSOvp7on_CCxr3iuKckb_BVxQcLBSykjgo6JCZI6wMwra9QPx06TeUtHb4-W8SeKR8Ro2p_m6Ycw96LrXQnEZD345a/s1600/P1030554.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSSNKQivWXJ9XBSJftBikJ-2GoefB5r_MvVDDmcVEugrhMGSMhyphenhyphenlNSOvp7on_CCxr3iuKckb_BVxQcLBSykjgo6JCZI6wMwra9QPx06TeUtHb4-W8SeKR8Ro2p_m6Ycw96LrXQnEZD345a/s1600/P1030554.JPG" width="240" /></a></div>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtIc6oSNcKRyE9han0R3j6birEGopTQqwO82B1OiWeeybw__clSkyOexBzAebOTxNuU6FbjvPzV6PvUQ5ZAJU76jeB14oMO43djG0U7Aj6pSe1AOqaZloNgEqWeMTSG5GYFIIZn2UoAUPN/s1600/DSC_0016.JPG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a>THE.FuTuRe: "You are getting old Contender, you need someone to look after you like the government......." 
 
CoNTeNDeR: "Promises, promises, promises - all great on paper but they need to be backed up with real deeds and wealth" 
 
In the fields around us the farmers are already bringing in part of the harvest. Most of the farmers we have seen are in their golden years. 
 
Heirs are no longer interested in the family business. They are attracted to the bright lights of the cities. Is the void going to be filled by bigger machines and robots guide their way. Society is ageing... 
<ul>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>Does the natural generational cycle (ageing to renewal) pose problems to future investments </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Where is capital currently being misallocated </li>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>What are the likely investment pitfalls in the years ahead </li>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>Do we need to change the way we allocate capital </li>
</ul>
<ul>

<li>What financial independence opportunities can arise from the boomer retirement and the natural redistribution of wealth to Generation X and Y and Millenials?  </li>
<ul>
<li>Latest Cyclically and Inflation Adjusted Market Analysis Graphs</li>
<li>Latest Dividend Value and Growth Dividend Stock Screen Results </li>
</ul>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
<h2>
A Generational Pyramid Gone Awry</h2>
The developed world has gone through dramatic economic and population growth. Vast numbers of jobs have been created to keep the cohort in pocket and spending. 
 
We thank them for Cheese in Cans, Pink Slime, Asbestos, Nuclear Accidents, Cities in the Desert, Mega bugs such as MRSA, Snout Houses, Dolly the Sheep, SAW films, The Benefit and Entitlement Society..... a benefit to society, get real. 
  
This population growth has had huge implications on the age distribution of society. We now have a more mature society due to improvements in life expectancy and lower birth rates. 
 
<a href="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ScreenHunter_02-Dec.-15-23.47.gif" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="217" src="http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/ScreenHunter_02-Dec.-15-23.47.gif" width="320" /></a>A smaller group of young people versus retirees  will be paying the benefits older society has bestowed on itself. 
 
<a href="http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/www/external/pubs/issue_papers/IP176/IP176.fig3.gif" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/www/external/pubs/issue_papers/IP176/IP176.fig3.gif" width="320" /></a>The pyramid (see diagram below) now resembles an imbalanced Thai temple, precariously weak in places but never the less still standing...just....one more gold statue on the top and it is game over. 
 
"Boomers" born after the first world war are now retiring en-mass. They primarily hold the wealth of western nations as well as the important positions in society. They still have the majority of the vote - and they actually use it to their benefit(s)! 
 
Vast wealth and benefits have skewered in their favour from high property prices, ownership of shares / businesses, and cheap access to health care. 
 
It was possible to accrue this wealth as they also benefited from low taxes, free / cheap education, a booming economy (that 'paid for' infrastructure that helped to turbocharge the economy) had access to cheap resources such as oil and land. 
 
20 - 40 year olds are increasingly reliant on the bank of mom and pop to get started in life delaying their true freedom and independence. Their jobs are increasingly demanding, having been <strike>educated</strike> trained to keep the machines running, don't think, just do it in a very productive manner. While you are at it you will have to pay higher taxes for <strike>our</strike> your benefit(s). 
 
Fortunately there is light at the end of the tunnel with the changing of the guard. 
 
As the boomers have to draw down their assets and loose their high profile positions in society their influence will naturally wane. This transition will have significant implications on taxes and investments. 
<h2>
Boomer Misallocation of Capital</h2>
We have been blessed with the boomer improvement in technologies that have driven higher life expectancies, mass long distance transport and the marvel of the internet to name a few. At the same time huge waste (resources) and lost opportunities (free energy) slipped through our grasp in the last few decades. 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result." (Albert Einstein)</blockquote>
A forefront critic of the boomers way of life has been James Howard Kunstler. He correctly in my opinion highlights all of the literally stupid decisions that have been made by the boomer generation. Here are a few decisions that really make you go hummmm.... 
<ol>
<li>Too big houses - to many resources used to make them, too many resources to maintain them and too many resources to run them. Just consider all of the paint and termite protection, heating of empty spaces.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://activerain.trulia.com/image_store/uploads/6/3/1/5/7/ar127547375975136.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="233" src="http://activerain.trulia.com/image_store/uploads/6/3/1/5/7/ar127547375975136.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">We used to live in much smaller houses in the US <a href="http://activerain.trulia.com/blogsview/1674255/top-5-new-home-trends" target="_blank">Source Activerain</a></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Too big heavy, inefficient cars to get to the too big house too far away from work. Literally burning capital (fuel) - what a waste? <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2010-05-20-oil%20production-Oildiscoveryvsproduction19302030.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="270" src="http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2010-05-20-oil%20production-Oildiscoveryvsproduction19302030.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
</td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Peak Oil Production? Something wrong with this picture? <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/matthew-stein/the-perfect-storm-six-tre_b_582779.html" target="_blank">Source Matthew Stein</a> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjixcfMgPKV6-SV0R0tucQWnXKYC0DqyLylRJbZz8NLb5p2ZW7b55Yz9V6rpABTuIQhTbNbdvCiNYvHOmU0p51cgG0g63lCKUvpak9SvfNSkm1ddkuL9NVLY_l2srcjT-xN_ak6r8xokon5/s1600/AEO_fig_44.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjixcfMgPKV6-SV0R0tucQWnXKYC0DqyLylRJbZz8NLb5p2ZW7b55Yz9V6rpABTuIQhTbNbdvCiNYvHOmU0p51cgG0g63lCKUvpak9SvfNSkm1ddkuL9NVLY_l2srcjT-xN_ak6r8xokon5/s1600/AEO_fig_44.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Gas Production is increasing - Time to Switch to a Natural Gas Car?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Introduction of the consumer model - buy buy buy, throw away or get a bigger house to fill up!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.algalita.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Annual-World-Plastics-Production-in-tons.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="315" src="http://www.algalita.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Annual-World-Plastics-Production-in-tons.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Plastic Fantastic until it breaks, degrades or is obsolete</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Creation of powerful self interest groups that are able to buy & erode democracy - keeping the status quo has been profitable for politicians and companies alike. </li>
<li> Accumulation of huge amounts of debt and benefits<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.ericgarland.co/wp-content/uploads/pix/2012/01/Total-Global-Debt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="241" src="http://www.ericgarland.co/wp-content/uploads/pix/2012/01/Total-Global-Debt.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rising faster than GDP - <a href="http://www.ericgarland.co/2012/01/16/a-quick-observation-on-total-global-debt/" target="_blank">Source Eric Garland</a> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
<li>Health / sick care pillaging from the public purse and health. Yes we treat illnesses instead of preventing them. Advertising of known foods and products that damage our health are allowed Freedom of choice right? Where is the profit in selling good healthy food that you do not need to eat in huge quantities and contain addictive unhealthy ingredients.<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://healthcaretrends.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/oecd-spend-trends-gdp1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="316" src="http://healthcaretrends.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/oecd-spend-trends-gdp1.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Health Care or Sick Care? <a href="http://healthreformtrends.com/2009/08/22/comparison-of-healthcare-spend-us-vs-world/" target="_blank">Source healthreformtrends</a> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
</li>
</ol>
<h2>
So What Happens Next?</h2>
What will our ageing societies do with their accrued 'wealth'. Is it going to be sold, spent and squandered. Vegas here we come, exhausting trips to far away lands, Face lifts, Sports cars, Golf, Fishing, Bridge club pointless really. 
 
Perhaps wealth and knowledge (retirement is a terrible thing really - all that know how and wisdom consigned to the past) is going to be passed down, invested or given? 
<h2>
</h2>
Unfortunately I believe the former will happen. Party time for the old timers! You can't begrudge them some of their time in the sun we can just hope it leaves something left over of value for the future. 
 
Do consumption stocks do OK? They will be indiscriminately sold to 'pay' for the boomers retirement along with every other stock but their goods will still be required. 
 
Does the selling have a detrimental effect to the entire market and drive down the retirement income resulting in a death spiral with ultra low interest rates, ultra low bond rates, ultra low dividend returns and lower retirement payouts? 
<h2>
Boomers Change their Consumption Habits</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
Increases in consumption</h3>
<ol>
<li>More health care</li>
<li>More eating out</li>
<li>Continue to work longer to maintain current lifestyle</li>
<li>More luxury goods</li>
<li>Holidays</li>
<li>Retirement entertainment activities (golf, spar, tennis etc.) </li>
</ol>
<h3 style="text-align: center;">
 Decreases in consumption</h3>
<ol>
<li>No commute to work</li>
<li>Move to a smaller house</li>
<li>Selling investments to pay for retirement</li>
</ol>
<ol></ol>
<h2>
Younger Generations Deal with the Fall Out</h2>
So how will the boomer benefits be paid for in the mean time, unfortunately through higher taxes. Younger generations will be spending / saving / investing less not a good equation in anyone's book? 
 
Entertainment - less eating out / cinema 
Clothing - wearing out clothes before buying new / less designer brands 
Smaller, more fuel efficient cars 
Holidays closer to home 
Less investments / money to save in stocks / bonds etc. 
 
Does this cause a feedback loop into the ultimate middle class source of wealth - housing: 
<ul>
<li>Boomers want to downshift</li>
<li>Gen X / Y cannot afford to buy a house / apartment and have to rent</li>
<li>Larger sized properties drop in value - boomer that are late to the downsize party are loosing out</li>
<li>Boomers en mass stampede to sell their larger properties making the housing crash worse.</li>
<li>All housing starts to drop in value and finally finds an equilibrium at a fair price for society</li>
<li>Unfortunately this re rating of housing has the possibility to leave devastation in its wake destroying huge swathes of paper wealth.</li>
<li>What inheritance will be left? At least the housing is cheaper!</li>

</ul>
Perhaps this is why the financial system is being propped up with easy QE money to maintain the myth of asset wealth and the massive misallocation of capital that has taken place. 
<ul>
</ul>
<h2>
The Likely Winners in the Inevitable Reallocation of Capital?</h2>
We are going to redistribute capital whether we like it or not. The forceful destruction of debt and serfdom will cause a repricing of assets to their real world price / value. 
 
By this I mean the price of everyday needs (food, shelter and energy) over wants and desires (designer goods, gizmo's, luxury holidays). 
 
Knowing what we do where will the "<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/2013/10/stuck-generation.html" target="_blank">Hero Generation</a>" look to re-deploy this wasted capital creating a new boom in the global economy? A good starting point is to revert back to Maslow's pyramid of needs to get the basics right before wasting capital on silly items and activities. 
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiPzhnQZKdXjs55FOa1tXDqnVAn0uoerYHiP_nkK6TnLLrAQrhb0UPQk4pJ9Vp7Jza3QkXwPo9_-bBvV7P6tbCT0MmzcdHHS3oNCGPMbpDqC6HfcR5ohiHv9hb3Yymxg8NGndjx_dOmIYd/s1600/Maslow.jpg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiPzhnQZKdXjs55FOa1tXDqnVAn0uoerYHiP_nkK6TnLLrAQrhb0UPQk4pJ9Vp7Jza3QkXwPo9_-bBvV7P6tbCT0MmzcdHHS3oNCGPMbpDqC6HfcR5ohiHv9hb3Yymxg8NGndjx_dOmIYd/s1600/Maslow.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Maslows Pyramid of Needs</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<ol>
<li>Energy efficiency -  there are very simple energy efficiency steps that can be taken. Smaller house, well insulated, smaller car, collect rain water, turn off unused electrical goods etc.</li>
<li>All new building needs new planning guidelines based on a community self sustaining design</li>
<li>All products should be built to last - laws can drive this change.</li>
<li>Working from home should be actively encouraged and rewarded</li>
<li>Consumption must be reduced - anything that could go digital should (books, magazines, newspapers, bills, certificates and the like.) </li>
<li>More food needs to be grown locally and exotic food should be taxed very highly to reflect the energy it consumes in transport.</li>
<li>Education needs to change focus to help develop the industrious, autonomous, gregarious, go getting individuals needed in for the rapid re-design of the broken system.</li>
</ol>
All this buys us time to correctly allocate capital into robust 
(Anti Fragile) living arrangements. This would have the following 
benefits 
<ol>
<li>Healthy living- reducing our need for health care</li>
<li>Cheap energy security - compressed air / electric cars run of solar arrays</li>
<li>Reduction in pollution - less packaging = less plastics =
 less toxins = less persistent waste that takes years to degrade = less 
landfill waste.</li>
<li>More biodiversity - just read about the die off of the bees - a very
 bad problem for our food security highly likely related to mono culture
 crops and pesticides.</li>
</ol>
<h2>
Choosing Prosperous Financial Independence Investments</h2>
Perhaps the ever grinding higher stock market indexes will hit a plateau or gradually decline for a prolonged period of time while a readjustment is made. By a re-adjustment I mean a re-allocation of generational wealth from the boomers to us youngsters. 
 
Once this adjustment has taken place a new freer and prosperous time is likely to appear with the rules of the game rewritten in a fairer economic system. 
 
In this is the case a stagnant / declining index is not viable for the 4% draw down rule, which has been fuelled by consistent growth in the world economy, may hit a wall for a period of years through the great reallocation of capital and generational wealth. 
 
Here are some inflation adjusted and <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/market-analysis.html" target="_blank">cyclically smoothed market and commodity data graphs</a> 
<iframe frameborder="no" height="500" scrolling="yes" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVkZHm4bo-_dCoKwvayag7Sb-z8ZGpG3AV1uQoN-Tj0/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" width="750"></iframe>

In this period of time perhaps stock picking wins over index tracking. Perhaps due to the destruction of wealth of industries that rely on huge profit margins from brand loyalty, cheap resource inputs and frivolous spending - avoiding these sectors could be the difference between true financial independence or back to work.   
 
Going defensive by choosing dividend value growth stocks with lower yields in industries with goods and services people NEED may be the better approach to take. Have a look at this blogs <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/stock-screen.html" target="_blank">stock screen</a>*: 
 
<iframe frameborder="no" height="300" scrolling="yes" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rk_3w8cmIsy_vkeiH1W6AHpFpzXXMRnWwsq7HJPb1jE/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" width="750"> </iframe>

These companies could be bought at a current high price to the future as boomers indiscriminately sell off their stocks. The peace of mind is that you can live off the dividends alone that should be safe as the companies profits are derived from people's NEEDS. 
 
Cash equivalents can be kept on hand to wait for the inevitable stock pullback / crash to take advantage of opportunities. 
 
Trailing sell stops can be applied to your current portfolio (on non core holdings) to help preserve capital in the case of a crash. 
 
Peace, prosperity and happiness 
 
CoNTeNDeR 
 
* The stock screen and market analysis information is provided for entertainment purposes only. I have never worked in the financial industry and am self taught. Always do your own research and seek professional advice as required and refer to the big fat disclaimer that comes with this site. 
 
Welcome New Readers! Please take a look around.<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/about-me.html" target="_blank">Click here</a> to find out more about THE.TriBe and the blog is or perhaps browse the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/all-posts-get-in-ring.html" target="_blank">all posts list</a>, Please feel free to play with the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">planning tools and checklists</a>. If you liked this post can you please spare a few seconds to share it?

Generational Imbalance

Contender 1 Critical Thinking, Debt, downshifting, Finance, financial freedom, financial independence, health, Investing, market analysis, Oil, Risk, stock screen 10:21

THE.FuTuRe: "You are getting old Contender, you need someone to look after you like the government......." CoNTeNDeR: "Promises, promises, promises - all great on paper but they need to be backed up with real deeds and wealth" In the fields around u… Read more »

06Jul2014

Learning from THE.PaST

Contender 0 Black Swan, Critical Thinking, Dividends, downshifting, Early Retirement, frugality, Gold, health, Oil, Silver, stock screen, Wheat 19:37

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZsMOmYGDqb5s3zfNm9SdXkJ8axcEshFs4nv-qJjKlSNuqFpSugGmGmMOfsjnYNraQEwN7Xgn0kEVrUVmv4YI4mKFbFgp7zL1Pjh0xVolOwJtEynPU2mrbuLVSqgnfBgxrdAhx_oM7ODoa/s1600/DSC_0037.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZsMOmYGDqb5s3zfNm9SdXkJ8axcEshFs4nv-qJjKlSNuqFpSugGmGmMOfsjnYNraQEwN7Xgn0kEVrUVmv4YI4mKFbFgp7zL1Pjh0xVolOwJtEynPU2mrbuLVSqgnfBgxrdAhx_oM7ODoa/s320/DSC_0037.JPG" width="320"></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A cold start to the year?</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
THE.FuTuRe: "CHUMP you still there? Learn from me and THE.NoW forget THE.PaST he is a has been, now look forward he can't teach you anything. THE.FuTuRe is mine all mine and it WILL be different than THE.PaST" 
 
CoNTeNDeR: "You are preaching to the converted, mate, but you forget one thing THE.FuTuRE may be different but it rhymes with THE.PaST and.....we are not having you mess up our enjoyment in THE.NoW" 
*CHUMP - Fool, loser, muppet, victim of THE.FuTuRe, loner, weirdo, odd, strange, picked on OR WINNER - Happy, healthy and challenged. 
 
TRiBe 2013 - Happiness and Investing...! 
 
We understand that money isn't everything but it alows us to do things that we want that give us..... happiness. It is damn nice but what is it how do we know? 
To help appreciate it (happiness) don't you need to experience its opposite as well? Can being rich in money mask real happiness by shielding you from real life
 experiences. 
 
So did the TRiBE have a rounded year.....with rich experiences both good and bad - even if we did not set out on that course - lets take a look:  
 
We really did have a roller coaster of a year. The sadness of a bereavement in the family. Lots of family illness 
in the form of all kinds of nasty bugs. Scarlet Fever, Schingles, 
Bronchitis, Chicken Pox and topped off with a nice bout of Gastro. That sure made us un-happy. Can we just mark that one down as couldn't do anything about due to the joys of having young kids and living in a large city. 
 
MRS.C
 left work followed with the normal withdrawal symptoms. From personal 
experience I actually think it is nicer to be sacked / made redundant than resign. It 
gets rid of the what in the hell am I resigning for / doing question. 
 
Bang! Suddenly the lack of work 
(job) = an empty void that you feel the need to fill back up OR was it too filled in the first place? 
 
We 
were very fortunate to be able to make these choices. At least our 
actions left a job behind for someone else to take up the financial 
independence mantra. 
 
So we packed up our belongings and 
gave away the rest then moved to another country. Fun, exciting and 
exhausting. 
 
This place is so different. How do you settle into a completely different culture as well as adapting to a complete change to family life (both parents at home and we have managed not to divorce yet). 
 
Yes family life. No more "shift 
family member from A to B refill on the way then into bed to recharge the 
batteries". THE.FuTuRe: "Fill the void! Do it now you must be busy all that free time together would drive you mad" 
 
Is he right what are we doing to fill the void - please read on for an investment review and some key learning's around our downshifting move to France from the year that was 2013

Learning from THE.PaST

Contender 0 Black Swan, Critical Thinking, Dividends, downshifting, Early Retirement, frugality, Gold, health, Oil, Silver, stock screen, Wheat 19:37

A cold start to the year? THE.FuTuRe: "CHUMP you still there? Learn from me and THE.NoW forget THE.PaST he is a has been, now look forward he can't teach you anything. THE.FuTuRe is mine all mine and it WILL be different than THE.PaST" CoNTeNDeR: "Y… Read more »

06Jan2014

The Ride of a Lifetime

Contender 0 Black Swan, Critical Thinking, Dividends, Gold, Inflation, Oil, Saving 18:10

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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Our Fire - A warm fuzzy feeling what about 2013?</td></tr>
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*CHUMP - Fool, loser, muppet, victim of THE.FuTuRe, loner, weirdo, odd, strange, picked on. 
 
*WINNER - Happy, healthy and challenged. 
 
THE.FuTuRe: "Hey CoNTeNDeR you CHUMP, Did 2013 work out as you planned it? Of course it did not. Why did you even try? You know I have lots of unpredictable surprises for you so don't try to hide. Come out of the woodwork and GetInTheRingWithMe!" 
 
CoNTeNDeR: "You fight dirty! Sure I am up for it just like every year. Our TRiBe has a plan for you.... we know you will mess some of it up just look at some of last years silliness. Some people WON" 
 
Everyone has his/her own agenda. The rich want to stay rich, the poor want to get ahead, the politicians want to stay in power, the greens want to save the planet.... Every butterfly flap of a wing could cause a hurricane. 
 
There is no knowing what THE.FuTuRe holds, let alone the complexities of an individual in a specific place at a specific time - ain't it great! 
 
Rich and lose it all, poor and win the lottery, a survivalist without a match, a capitalist going long in a bear market, the gift of a new borne child. 
 
Today a brief look at 2013 which will have a follow up post on what, if anything, THE.TRiBe has learnt from it. 
 
Unique, unfathomable, awesome 2013 
 
Well, what a year 2013 was, just like THE.PaST. Unpredictable. Perhaps more unpredictable than ever. 
 
Great gains in US stocks with modest gains in the UK and Europe. Why amazing well company earnings are not exactly up 28% like the stock market. I wish I could have a business that gains 28% a year. 
 
Energy did ok - if you were invested in the US shale oil boom. As for how long the drilling of vast acres of the US will yield results is another question? Be pessimistic for 2020 or oil forever see <a href="http://srsroccoreport.com/" target="_blank">SRSrocco.com</a> for some analysis. 
 
Defensive stocks in the UK were on a blinder at the start of the year and lost out to risk on stocks later. Twitter, Facebook, Bitcoin get on the free money gravy train of the cyber economy. dot.com boom and prosperity is coming back. 
 
In the mean time we thought staying at home on the computer was a safe place to be. Yet this year we are told we are being watched and they have software to turn on your web camera to see what you are up to. Orwellian indeed.

The Ride of a Lifetime

Contender 0 Black Swan, Critical Thinking, Dividends, Gold, Inflation, Oil, Saving 18:10

Our Fire - A warm fuzzy feeling what about 2013? *CHUMP - Fool, loser, muppet, victim of THE.FuTuRe, loner, weirdo, odd, strange, picked on. *WINNER - Happy, healthy and challenged. THE.FuTuRe: "Hey CoNTeNDeR you CHUMP, Did 2013 work out as you plan… Read more »

05Jan2014

Screener Updated

Contender 0 Investing, Oil, Schiller PE10, Silver, stock screen, Wheat 14:12

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The Stock Screener and Market analysis spreadsheet has been updated and a few more analysis graphs have been added. 
<ul>
<li>PE10 and Real Commodity Prices have been updated</li>
<li>Historical Debt to GDP and population growth analysis has been added for the US and the UK</li>
<li>All sources of information are included in the spreadsheet </li>
</ul>
Future improvements will be made to give a bigger picture of asset class valuations e.g. supply and demand of a commodity which can then be looked at further. Further long term trend analysis is another interest 
 
<a href="https://sites.google.com/site/lifeplanltd/home/StockScreener.xlsm?attredirects=0&d=1" target="_blank">Click here</a> to download* - its introduction post can be <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.com/2013/11/screener-for-value-and-dividend-stocks.html" target="_blank">found here </a> 
 
Peace, prosperity and happiness 
 
THE.CONTENDER 
 
Welcome New CONTENDER Readers! Please take a look around. 
 
<a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-me.html" target="_blank">Here you can find out about </a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/null" target="_blank">THE.CONTENDER</a> and the purpose of the blog is or perhaps browse the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.co.uk/p/all-posts-get-in-ring.html" target="_blank">all posts list</a>, have a <a href="http://pinterest.com/gitrwm/contender-vs-the-future/" target="_blank">look at the pictures on the notice board</a><a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.co.uk/p/about-me.html#random" rel="13"></a>. Please feel free to play with the <a href="http://getintheringwithme.blogspot.co.uk/p/muff-tools-and-check-lists.html" target="_blank">planning tools and checklists</a>. 
 
Keep in Touch:  <a href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/MuffFreeLifeAndExtremeFinancialFreedomPlanningTools" target="_new">RSS Feed</a>, follow THE.CONTENDER on <a href="https://twitter.com/The__Contender" target="_blank">Twitter</a> or <a href="https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Contender/368729006562792" target="_blank">Facebook </a>or subscribe to posts by email: 
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* Like everything on this website the tools 
have been created for personal use / entertainment purposes. The 
information is as accurate as far as the author is aware (unfortunately 
he is human and is prone to mistakes from time to time - **** happens). THE.CoNTeNDeR
 is not a financial adviser just a guy who is on the cusp of financial 
independence for his little tribe through frugality and investing for THE.FuTuRe.  
 
Please read the disclaimer that comes with 
this website and always do your own due diligence and research. Seek 
professional advice as required.

Screener Updated

Contender 0 Investing, Oil, Schiller PE10, Silver, stock screen, Wheat 14:12

The Stock Screener and Market analysis spreadsheet has been updated and a few more analysis graphs have been added. PE10 and Real Commodity Prices have been updated Historical Debt to GDP and population growth analysis has been added for the US and … Read more »

07Dec2013

Get Real

Contender 0 Compound Interest, Early Retirement, financial freedom, financial independence, Gold, Investing, Oil, Schiller PE10, Silver, Wheat 14:40

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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Real Stuff (munkee.com)</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
 PLAN.AHEAD: "Where have you been CONTENDER we need to get on with your training?" 
 THE.CONTENDER: "THE FUTURE caught our little tribe out with the evil flu but we are back in the game now" 
PLAN.AHEAD: "Right C your NEW training program is called LEARN.SOMETHING.USEFUL" 
THE.CONTENDER: "Is it going to help me defeat THE FUTURE?" 
PLAN.AHEAD: "Now don't get carried away. One step at a time. I have so many things you need to learn. What I need from you is Focus, Listen and Actually Understand, Take your time and let it all sink in" 
THE.CONTENDER: "Yes master tell me tell me I want to know the secrets of the FINANCIAL.INDEPENDENCE.SHIELD and the HAPPINESS.PUNCH (hopefully it is alcoholic ;) 
 
In this post a thesis that the next 30 years are going to be very different than the last 30 years (à la <a href="http://www.peakprosperity.com/" target="_blank">Chris Martinson</a>). In particular considering investing in REAL NECESSITIES instead of passive INDEX investing. 
 
Next post will provide a new stock screening tool that analyses up to 3000 stocks at a time AND an update to CERP - financial planning tool to incorporate an individual stock analysis dashboard as well as a 10x boost to the speed of the tool! 
 
 
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 <td align="LEFT" height="19" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" valign="MIDDLE">Stock analysis of debt, dividend sustainability and the dividend discount model for intrinsic value evaluation</td>
 <td align="LEFT" style="border-bottom: 1px solid #000000; border-left: 1px solid #000000; border-right: 1px solid #000000; border-top: 1px solid #000000;" valign="MIDDLE">Stock screener for company quality and return on capital</td>
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Return of Capital 
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"It not the return on capital but the return of capital" - Jim Rodgers 
 
 "The first rule of investing has always been don't lose money!" - Warren Buffet</blockquote>
 
For those seeking very early financial independence we need to to grow money faster than inflation and build up a passive income. 
 
In order to do this THE.CONTENDER has looked to first understand what is money and investing (after making a few mistakes) before taking the plunge into the stock market. 
 
Ever since our Tribe started to invest in precious metals in 2005 (a very small amount after talking to an investment banker at a party and being inspired by his outlook on investment) we have been interested in what is money? Why is it valuable? Why does it lose its value over time? 
 
We want our savings to AT LEAST buy comparative goods in the future. $10 for a bag of potatoes today + bank account interest should cost $10 in five years time. 
 
If we are growing our money what is the REAL return after inflation? 
 
10 years ago you could get a loaf of bread for 0.5 monetary units,  now it costs 1.5 monetary units in only 10 years! Supposedly technology has improved so the cost of my loaf of bread should be coming down right??!!!: 
<ol>
<li>Transport is more efficient (we mix truck loads to get max fill / weight ratios with complex computer programs and collaboration across multiple companies)  </li>
<li>Energy is captured and recycled in the baking process  </li>
<li>Agriculture productivity is up - better machines, fertilizers and weather prediction systems....  </li>
<li>Waste is down due to efficient inventory management and improved sales forecasting.  </li>
<li>Competition is rife and profit margins are being reduced  </li>
<li>The USA is going to be energy independent and oil and gas prices are going to plummet!</li>
</ol>
Why Why Why has the cost of my loaf of bread trebled after all of these cost saving improvements? Why is THE.CONTENDER paying so much more for the basics of life compared to 10 years ago. Inflation has been reported as very low.....????

Get Real

Contender 0 Compound Interest, Early Retirement, financial freedom, financial independence, Gold, Investing, Oil, Schiller PE10, Silver, Wheat 14:40

Real Stuff (munkee.com) PLAN.AHEAD: "Where have you been CONTENDER we need to get on with your training?" THE.CONTENDER: "THE FUTURE caught our little tribe out with the evil flu but we are back in the game now" PLAN.AHEAD: "Right C your NEW train… Read more »

09Dec2012

Welcome to FISH !
You have come here looking for answers. How to get out of debt? How to save and invest? How to retire early and how you want to live in retirement.

Well this is the right place for you as out tribe has been through all of these steps. We no longer work for a corporate employer and have saved enough to retire early. How we did this is shared here on this site for you.

Our little tribe found out these secrets to financial independence in our late 20’s. Since then we have taken early retirement, in our late 30's, in just 7 years. We now live in the South West of France with our two young children.

Along the way I decided to share everything I learnt. My articles and tips on aggressive saving and compound investing are there to help you meet your financial goals fast. I discuss ways to help you decide what you want by building a life plan. This helps to work out how to get where you want to be whilst avoiding the pitfalls along the way.

My expertise was built up working in blue chip corporate jobs, extensive reading and putting it into practice. I have condensed this knowledge into simple strategies to help you meet your goals and not those of the bank or the place you work.

There are free planning tools on this site that help you make a life plan. A plan for your future. The tools calculate how to reach your financial goals in a timeline that suits you. The tools help set out your life goals, make them happen and how to exceed them.

There are tips on how to simplifying your life to remove day to day headaches. These include ways to pay off debt fast buy eliminating wasteful spending habits. How to reduce your monthly bills through choices that actually improve your health and wellbeing. Identifying things you don’t need that sap your time and wallet.

There are little sustainability projects to reduce your dependence on shops and utilities whilst saving money to spend on things you want.

All of these little steps will show you how save 50%+ of your salary so you can meet your goal whatever it is. This huge saving rate can be compounded for very early retirement. I am sure you will find something here for you.

Darren Lee (A.K.A the Contender as in my blog)

FISH | Financial Independence Seeking Happiness

Generational Imbalance

Learning from THE.PaST

The Ride of a Lifetime

Screener Updated

Get Real

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